Israel’s election ended without a clear winner, but one result rattled the two major competing camps.
Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, at roughly 53 seats at the latest count, nor Gadi Eisenkot’s, at around 48, could reach the magic number of 61 or more to form the next government. But the Arab parties, running under the Joint List and the United List, or Ra’am, have together snatched a historic 19 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
That would be the largest Arab representation in Israeli history, up from 10 seats today and above the 15 seats they won in 2020. Whatever the final tally, the Arab parties have emerged as this election’s surprise upset, and possibly kingmakers.
Analysts at the Israel Democracy Institute once described the long slide in Arab turnout in Israeli general elections as seemingly irreversible: from about 75 percent in 1999 to 44.6 percent in 2021, then 53.2 percent in 2022. This week, the turnout was about 80 percent, above the national figure of 77.7 percent; a number that has sent tremors across the Israeli political scene, especially since Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about a fifth of Israel’s population.
Several factors explain this popular mobilization. The first and most direct factor is anger at Netanyahu’s far-right government, which is perceived as ideologically anti-Arab, with far-right racist ministers openly inciting against their community. In a September Israel Democracy Institute poll, 54 percent of Palestinian citizens of Israel named rising crime their top voting issue.
The second factor is same-day backlash. Netanyahu spent Election Day fearmongering and warning that Palestinian citizens of Israel were flooding polling stations and accused them of trying to steal the election. Media reports say Likud and Religious Zionism sent nearly 2,000 activists to Arab polling places, which Arab parties say was meant to scare voters.
Whatever the final tally, the Arab parties have emerged as this election’s surprise upset, and possibly kingmakers
Osama Al-Sharif
The third possible factor is the national drive, especially by right-of-center parties and the left, to get rid of Netanyahu after the October 2023 security breach and what followed. Many Palestinian citizens of Israel have their own reasons to punish Netanyahu, whom they blame for the atrocities committed in Gaza and the wave of terror being carried out by Israeli fanatics in the West Bank.
While neither competing Zionist camp expected the Arab parties to do so well, the stunning win has blocked Netanyahu’s path to forming a government on his own. His bloc is eight seats short of 61, Eisenkot’s is 13. High Arab turnout denied both a majority, but by the end of the day it could hurt Eisenkot more, since Netanyahu can still hope to attract parties from outside his bloc. At the same time, Eisenkot needs Arab votes in some form to reach a majority.
From now on it is a horse-trading ritual, not unusual in Israeli politics. Eisenkot has three likely routes. First, he can invite Arab parties into his government, which is unlikely for several reasons. His allies, namely Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett, have ruled out direct Arab participation.
The second possible route is a quid-pro-quo deal in which Arab parties back him from outside, providing a parliamentary safety net. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has offered exactly that to any government seeking to oust Netanyahu. At the same time, Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas wants a real partnership and says he is talking to both blocs.
A third route, which is reportedly backed by elements in the Donald Trump administration, is a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. It is possible on paper, but question marks remain about whether everyone involved would accept it, especially in the opposition bloc, where Eisenkot and Liberman have vowed not to serve under Netanyahu under any circumstances.
Eisenkot and the Arab lists can do one thing immediately: replace the current Likud head of the Knesset and force an independent committee to investigate the security failures of Oct. 7, 2023, and Netanyahu’s responsibility, something the prime minister has avoided on multiple occasions.
For an Arab party to join an Israeli government, there is precedent. In 2021, Abbas signed a coalition deal with Bennett and Yair Lapid worth billions of dollars for the Arab community, which also led to the recognition of several Bedouin villages. Netanyahu himself reportedly negotiated with Abbas earlier, a claim Likud denies; but a deal fell through because Bezalel Smotrich objected.
For Netanyahu, any partnership between Eisenkot and the Palestinian citizens of Israel means derailment of his chances and his political comeback. Within hours of the exit polls, he dismissed any partnership with Arab parties as treasonous and said a government working with them would endanger Israel.
Later on Wednesday, Likud claimed the Arab parties stole the election and demanded an investigation into vote rigging in Arab polling stations, but these are allegations. Netanyahu’s inciting message is the same: a government that depends on Arab votes will be branded illegitimate from its first day.
Until the Israeli president decides on who will have the first attempt to form a government, far-right parties that campaigned on Arab turnout as a threat will campaign next on Arab influence as a threat. Some analysts also believe Netanyahu will try to force a new election if his efforts to form a new government fail, which could negatively affect the turnout of Palestinian citizens of Israel, as happened in 2021 after repeated elections, giving the far right a new push to claim a majority.
For the euphoric Arab parties, the best response is to convert turnout into genuine commitments on crime and budgets before extending any support. Such commitment will satisfy the voters who showed up. The 2019 and 2021 collapses show how quickly such gains can vanish.
The surprise of this election is that Palestinian citizens of Israel showed up to vote in historic numbers. The test now is to see what they can get for it.
