The week that pushed the Middle East closer to all-out war

The next day, at around 19:30 local time, 10 million Israelis were sent running for bomb shelters across the country after Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel.

The nation’s air defence system sprang into action – and allies including the US and UK were involved in repelling the attack – another sign of the broadening scope of the conflict.

The IDF said most of the missiles were intercepted, but that a small number struck central and southern Israel. The only person reported to have been killed was a Palestinian man in the occupied West Bank.

With its biggest proxy group in disarray, Tehran calculated that to restore some semblance of deterrence it needed to do something more dramatic than its last well-telegraphed missile and drone attack on Israel in April.

Hence the larger number of ballistic missiles and the lack of advance notice.

But while the attack was more than purely demonstrative, it did not appear to signal Iran’s desire for an all-out fight.

That’s hardly surprising. If it came to a full-on war, Iran knows that it would lose, and badly.

It could even herald the end of the Islamic Republic.

Israel, with powerful western allies – and a smattering of Middle Eastern neighbours willing to help shoot down Iranian missiles – is a regional superpower.

Iran, economically fragile and led by an unpopular government, is no match. Nor does it have the sort of allies that would be willing to spring to its defence in the event of a confrontation.

The supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, made suitably defiant noises at Friday prayers in Tehran, but Iran knows it cannot afford to escalate much further.