Iran’s dilemma over restraint or revenge for attacks on Hezbollah

Barak Ravid, an Israeli journalist at the US news site Axios, reported on Tuesday that two Israeli officials and Western diplomats had indicated that Hezbollah was urging Iran to come to its aid by attacking Israel. The Israeli officials claimed that Iran had told Hezbollah that “the timing isn’t right”, according to Ravid.

Last week, the host of the Iranian internet TV program Maydan, which is known to have ties to the IRGC, cited Iranian intelligence sources as claiming that Israel had also “carried out a special operation last month, killing IRGC members and stealing documents”.

He asserted that the Iranian press had been forbidden from reporting on the incident, which allegedly happened inside in Iran, and that the authorities were attempting to control the narrative.

In response, Tasnim News Agency, which also linked to the IRGC, denied the allegations.

The Islamic Republic finds itself in a precarious situation.

It is concerned that attacking Israel could provoke a US military response, dragging the country into a broader conflict.

With a crippled economy due to US sanctions and ongoing domestic unrest, a potential US strike against the IRGC could further weaken its the regime’s security apparatus, possibly emboldening the Iranian opponents to rise up once more.

However, if Iran refrains from direct intervening in Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel, it risks sending a signal to other allied militias in the region that, in times of crisis, the Islamic Republic may prioritize its own survival and interests over theirs.

This could weaken Iran’s influence and alliances across the region.