Indonesia’s Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto Extends Lead in Presidential Race

47

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, have widened their lead in the 2024 presidential race, according to a survey conducted by Indikator Politik. Indonesia’s president’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, won 46.7% of the vote, while Ganjar Pranowo and his running mate, Mohammad Mahfud MD, received 24.5%, and Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar received 21%.

The survey polled 1,217 respondents across Indonesia from December 23-December 24. Indonesians will elect the successor to Joko “Jokowi” Widodo on February 14, 2024. In the first presidential debate, Anies impressed 35.5% of respondents as the best and most eloquent candidate, while Prabowo trailed with 28.9%. The survey also found that Prabowo dominates all regions of Indonesia except Central Java, and has the support of all ethnic groups, except for the Muslim Minang people in West Sumatra.

Indonesia’s presidential election system requires a runoff if no candidate secures over 50% of votes, but if Prabowo-Gibran captures most swing voters, they could avoid a run-off. The second and third places are too close to call, as Ganjar and Anies are within the 2.9% margin of error of the survey. If the election is not decided in one round, either of them could join Prabowo in the runoff. Prabowo and Gibran have gained more support from the public due to Jokowi’s popularity, according to political analyst Wasisto Raharjo Jati.

The candidates will try to win over swing voters to either catch up or secure their victory. However, Prabowo appears to be the clear frontrunner, with surveys released this month showing him ahead of his rivals. The 72-year-old retired general, accused of human rights violations during the Suharto dictatorship and the 1998 riots, has been Jokowi’s main rival in the past two elections, losing narrowly.

Indonesian President Prabowo has received 45.2% of the vote in a Poltracking Indonesia poll, followed by Ganjar with 27.3% and Anies with 23.1%. In the vice presidential debate, 36-year-old mayor Gibran, a former mayor of Solo, faced seasoned politicians Mahfud and Muhaimin. Critics argue that Gibran benefits from his father’s popularity and influence, while his candidacy is seen as a continuation of his father’s legacy. His bid has been criticized for a perceived conflict of interest and accusations of nepotism. During the debate, Gibran discussed plans for industrialization, digital policy, economic growth, cybersecurity, and data protection. Two more presidential and an additional vice presidential debates are scheduled before the election.