\n
<\/p>\n
SYDNEY: Australia forecast on Monday that \u200cdeaths would exceed births for the first time in the 2060s, a demographic shift with far-reaching implications for an economy grappling with an ageing population, declining births and cuts to immigration.<\/p>\n
For decades, Australia has sustained population growth by relying on immigration to offset low birth rates. But with immigration now slowing, the country is starting to look down a path already taken by many advanced economies including Japan, Germany and South Korea, where deaths have already outnumbered births.<\/p>\n
In an Intergenerational Report published on \u200cMonday, the Treasury \u200cdepartment identified AI, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, \u200cageing population and a shift to a service-based economy as the five most consequential transformations facing the country\u2019s economic outlook over the next four decades.<\/p>\n
It now expects population growth to slow to 0.9% a year over the next four decades as fertility rates decline and net overseas migration \u2013 the difference between the number of incoming migrants and people leaving the country \u2013 continues to fall \u200cbefore stabilising. That is down \u200cfrom an average of 1.4% rise over the past 40 years.<\/p>\n
\u201cAustralia\u2019s population \u200cwill age more quickly and grow more slowly than projected,\u201d \u200cTreasury said in the report. \u201cDeaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s \u2013 the first time this has been forecast in an IGR \u2013 at which point natural increase will no longer be a \u200cdriver of population growth.\u201d<\/p>\n
The left-leaning Labor government tightened immigration rules last week, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to fend off a surge in support for the right-wing populist One Nation party that has pledged to sharply curb immigration. Albanese\u2019s approval rating slipped this week to its lowest level since he became prime minister in 2022.<\/p>\n
The report also warned an ageing population would boost demand in the care services, with regions with older populations facing greater labour shortages in healthcare and aged care, sectors that rely heavily on migrant workers.<\/p>\n
The report also flagged tax cuts in future budgets as Labor doles out more cost-of-living relief to Australians grappling with elevated inflation, higher mortgage rates, and expensive housing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n