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BEIJING\/WASHINGTON: In the four months since the leaders of the two global superpowers last met, Xi Jinping has overseen a surge in China\u2019s trade with the world while Donald Trump has struggled with falling approval \u200bratings at home.<\/p>\n
That shift in fortunes has tempered expectations for their summit in Washington this week, analysts say, with Xi in no rush to make concessions and Trump constrained by a costly war with Iran that has hurt both his popularity and Americans\u2019 wallets.<\/p>\n
While thorny issues like Taiwan may surface, the main focus of the September 24 meeting is whether the leaders will signal an extension to a trade truce struck last year that averted a major shock to the global economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cXi is not really looking for anything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman\u2019s agreement with Trump so that China has time to fortify itself,\u201d said Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution who formerly served as China director at the US National Security Council.<\/p>\n
\u2019Living in Xi\u2019s world\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n White House officials have sought to downplay the potential for major breakthroughs. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng helmed preparatory talks in \u200cNew York on Sunday \u200caimed at teeing up some potential agreements on AI guardrails and trade in non-sensitive products.<\/p>\n That is a \u200bfar \u200ccry \u2060from Trump\u2019s \u200bvow \u2060when he returned to office in 2025 to use tariffs to address a trade imbalance with China that was \u201ckilling\u201d the United States.<\/p>\n But since agreeing the truce with Xi in October of that year, his attention has been divided among myriad other foreign policy battles, from the wars in Iran and Ukraine to disputes with Europe over free speech.<\/p>\n China has faced its own challenges, such as slowing domestic demand and a protracted property crisis, but the export juggernaut that Trump sought to tame has kept roaring in what economists are increasingly referring to as China Shock 2.0.<\/p>\n China\u2019s global trade surplus is on pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year.<\/p>\n While US efforts to curb the cheap parcels that online retailers such as Shein and Temu rely on have worked, more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories China \u2060sold to the US so far this year have grown compared to 2025.<\/p>\n A delegation of Chinese business leaders, \u200cpotentially including some firms facing US regulatory scrutiny as they seek greater market access, is set to \u200caccompany Xi to Washington.<\/p>\n The Trump administration \u201cthought they could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to \u200bmake concessions, and that did not occur,\u201d said Scott Kennedy, an expert \u200con the US-China economic relationship at Washington-based think tank CSIS.<\/p>\n \u201cNow this is Xi Jinping\u2019s world, and we\u2019re all living in it.\u201d<\/p>\n Taiwan and trade wins<\/strong><\/p>\n If Xi \u200cis in the driver\u2019s seat as analysts suggest, that will further unnerve US allies in Asia who expect the Chinese leader to push Trump to soften Washington\u2019s support for Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by Beijing.<\/p>\n Xi repeatedly asked him about Taiwan when they met in Beijing in May, including about arms sales and Washington\u2019s resolve to defend the island, Trump told reporters.<\/p>\n The US president described a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan as a \u201cnegotiating chip\u201d with Beijing.<\/p>\n Some officials in Taipei and Tokyo worry he may be \u200ctempted to cash in that chip for political wins ahead of November\u2019s midterm elections, which could prove challenging for his Republican Party.<\/p>\n That could include Chinese purchases of Boeing jets or farm goods, or commitments to curb the \u2060flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals that have \u2060fueled the US opioid crisis.<\/p>\n \u201cChina-US ties have become more transactional,\u201d said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai\u2019s Fudan University who advises China\u2019s foreign ministry.<\/p>\n While Washington may want to prioritize trade talks, for Beijing, the US approach to Taiwan could be key, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you accommodate our concern on the Taiwan issue, then we would be willing to accommodate your concerns on other issues, be it law enforcement or on purchases of US agricultural products,\u201d Wu said.<\/p>\n Putting pressure on Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n Washington also sees Xi as uniquely able to exert pressure on Iran to bring an end to the war that has dragged Trump\u2019s approval rating to the lowest of his political career.<\/p>\n However, Xi has shown little inclination to do so. Reuters earlier this month reported that Beijing is selling billions of dollars\u2019 worth of goods to Iran through a sanctions-evasion scheme. China\u2019s foreign ministry says it is not aware of such a scheme.<\/p>\n US threats last month of secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran \u2014 which Bessent called an \u201cEconomic D-Day\u201d \u2014 appear not to have yet been wielded against Tehran\u2019s largest trading partner.<\/p>\n That is more evidence, analysts say, that Trump is eager to keep relations with Xi steady as he focuses his energies elsewhere \u2014 an arrangement that also suits the Chinese leader.<\/p>\n \u201cBoth Xi \u200band Trump feel it\u2019s quite helpful to have stability in the relationship \u200bso that they can focus on more pressing things,\u201d said Ruby Osman, senior geopolitical researcher at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.<\/p>\n \u201cFor Trump, that is Iran. For Xi, that is building out China\u2019s domestic resilience for whatever comes after Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n