\u2022 More than 6,250 people infected and 3,039 dead in outbreak.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\nAs the virus spreads, health officials are looking for ways to anticipate where cases could emerge next and direct limited surveillance and response resources.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cPopulation movements have always been a factor in outbreaks, but they are particularly important in the \u200ccurrent epidemic,\u201d said Olivier \u200cLe Polain, head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Traditional \u200brisk \u200cassessments focus \u2060on outbreak \u200bhotspots \u2060and assume the virus is most likely to spread to surrounding areas.Analizing mobility data allows responders to identify risks in places that may be geographically distant but closely connectedthrough travel patterns.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIt gives us a more nuanced understanding of risk,\u201d Le Polainsaid, citing the example of Ituri province, in the northeast, where the virus is believed to have started circulating.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are very significant population movements in Ituri linked to mining activities and trade. Understanding those movements is crucial to understanding how the outbreak spreads.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
The analysis is produced by Swedish non-profit Flowminder, using anonymised records generated when mobile phone users connect to telecommunications networks. As people move around the country, their phones connect to different antennas on the network, generating records that show where those connections took place. Researchers use \u2060those records to estimate how people travel between different areas.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The data is provided free of charge by \u200cVodacom, Congo\u2019s largest operator. Vodacom did not respond to a request for comment.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Flowminder says it \u200creceives aggregated and anonymised records and does not have access to information identifying individual subscribers.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe seek \u200bto provide estimates of how people move, which in turn is \u200ca predictor of how infectious people move,\u201d Flowminderfounder Linus Bengtsson said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Flowminder\u2019s first analysis, published in early June, focused on the three \u200careas where the outbreak is believed to have started: Bunia, Mongbwalu and Rwampara. Researchers tracked where people who had spent time in those areas between April 3 and April 23 later traveled.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The largest flows were to nearby areas in Ituri province and North Kivu province. By the end of June, all 10 of the destinations receiving the largest flows of travelers from the original outbreak areas had reported confirmed Ebola cases.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n