LONDON: After the latest escalation in southern Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, the odds of a new regional front opening in the ongoing war between the US and Iran appear to have dropped sharply.<\/p>\n
The Kingdom has made clear that it would not hesitate to defend itself against Iran-backed Houthi missiles and drones, and would use all available means to protect its interests.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Houthi militia resorts to violence whenever it finds itself in a difficult situation,\u201d Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on Tuesday during a visit to Moscow, adding that the group was \u201ctrying to export their domestic problems in Yemen to Saudi Arabia.\u201d<\/p>\n
On Wednesday, Saudi officials reassured the public that the situation was fully under control, saying that the threat in Khamis Mushait, Najran, Jazan and Abha had passed, after earlier issuing alerts warning of a potential threat.<\/p>\n
The latest incidents are more than just cross-border fire. They occur in a tense regional context, in which Saudi Arabia \u2014 and neighboring Gulf countries \u2014 have faced months of unprovoked strikes tied to Iran and its so-called axis of resistance, of which the Houthis are part.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, the Houthis carried out attacks across the border with Saudi Arabia, wounding scores of civilians in the most serious escalation since a UN-brokered truce halted large-scale fighting in 2022.<\/p>\n
The Houthis claimed they targeted Saudi Aramco energy facilities in the south, with the group\u2019s military spokesman calling it \u201ca broad operation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Strikes hit civilian and energy infrastructure in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran, causing several fires at oil facilities that led to a temporary halt in some operations, Saudi Arabia\u2019s Energy Ministry said.<\/p>\n
According to Saudi officials, the attacks left 73 civilians injured, including women and children.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, the group carried out further attacks targeting Khamis Mushait, Abha and Jazan using ballistic missiles and drones, according to a statement by Maj. Gen. Turki Al-Maliki, the official spokesperson for the Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen.<\/p>\n The attacks by the Iran-backed group on Saudi Arabia unfold even as they battle Yemen\u2019s internationally recognized government, which announced on Monday that it was launching counteroffensives against Houthi-held positions across several provinces.<\/p>\n The escalation also comes as the strategic importance of Yemen\u2019s Bab Al-Mandab strait grows amid Iran\u2019s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for global oil and gas supplies.<\/p>\n The Houthis have sought to advance toward Bab Al-Mandab while government forces say their campaign ultimately aims to retake the capital, Sanaa, from the militia\u2019s control.<\/p>\n The Houthi attacks drew condemnation from Egypt, which described them as \u201ca dangerous escalation,\u201d as well as Jordan and the UAE, which said the barrage violated Saudi sovereignty.<\/p>\n Condemning the attacks, the EU called on the Houthis to cease attacks inside and outside Yemen, including on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.<\/p>\n For his part, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that \u201cthe US has a very strong defensive military relationship with Saudi Arabia, and we\u2019re watching those events very closely.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s been going on for some time. I think we\u2019ve got some ground operations as well,\u201d he said, noting that \u201cYemeni forces are taking on the Houthis and pushing back against some of the ground advances that they attempted to make.\u201d<\/p>\n Some analysts see the rise in Houthi military activity as a sign that Iran is seeking to widen the conflict, arguing that it fits a pattern Tehran has pursued \u2014 and, some say, long planned \u2014 throughout the current war.<\/p>\n Others note that the Houthis have so far played a comparatively limited role while other factions in Iran\u2019s regional axis have engaged US and allied forces more directly, making this week\u2019s escalation a notable shift in the group\u2019s posture.<\/p>\n Tuesday and Wednesday\u2019s attacks, in this context, represented what Gulf security expert Andreas Krieg described to the AFP news agency as an \u201cextremely uncomfortable dilemma.\u201d<\/p>\n Despite being subjected to sporadic attacks on its oil tankers in the Red Sea and other provocations in recent months, Saudi Arabia has largely refrained from a direct response. After Tuesday, the big question seems to be whether that restraint is sustainable any longer.<\/p>\n \u201cWe will always support peace and diplomatic solutions, but we will not hesitate to defend ourselves, and we will not hesitate to protect our interests,\u201d Prince Faisal bin Farhan said.<\/p>\n Analysts have long suspected that Saudi Arabia\u2019s patience is wearing thin, with the underlying threat, the regional context and the range of possible outcomes \u2014 from renewed escalation to a return to containment \u2014 increasingly converging into a single, more urgent calculation.<\/p>\n On Tuesday, Al-Maliki, suggested that retaliation was no longer a matter of whether, but when, adding that the coalition \u201cwill take all necessary operational measures to deter\u201d the group\u2019s \u201chostile and irresponsible\u201d approach.<\/p>\n Earlier in the day Tuesday, Salman Al-Ansari, a prominent Saudi political researcher and commentator, had said on X: \u201cThe gloves are off. Saudi Arabia will finish the job against the Iran-backed Houthi militia.\u201d<\/p>\n On Wednesday, Al-Maliki reiterated the warning, saying the \u201cCoalition will deal with these sinful attacks with full responsibility to protect the Kingdom’s sovereignty and national assets, and to protect civilians and civilian objects from these hostile attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n A Houthi spokesman claimed without evidence that the group\u2019s attacks on Tuesday were retaliation for Saudi involvement in air raids and a prison attack in Al-Jawf. That posture had echoes of the \u201ceye for an eye\u201d siege-for-siege logic the group announced in July, when it said its aim was to force recognition of its ability to hurt Saudi Arabia beyond Yemen\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n By pushing toward Bab Al-Mandeb while Iran keeps up the pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis appear to be seeking dual leverage, for themselves and Tehran, over global oil and trade flows and thereby turning Yemen\u2019s western coast into a second pressure point on international shipping.<\/p>\n The Houthis have long maintained a degree of operational independence, but the timing of the latest escalation has prompted questions about whether it reflects closer coordination with Tehran \u2014 a question that remains contested among Iran watchers.<\/p>\n What is less disputed is the underlying strategic choice facing the Houthis: whether they are primarily seeking bargaining leverage for future talks and possible sanctions relief, or consciously opening a more durable regional front tied to Iran\u2019s confrontation with the US and Israel.<\/p>\n For Saudi Arabia, however, attacks on its energy infrastructure \u2014 and, more significantly, what it sees as a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and a direct threat to its citizens\u2019 safety \u2014 may represent a red line.<\/p>\n On Tuesday night, Khawaja Asif, Pakistan\u2019s defense minister, warned that the Makkah Defense Alliance between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye could become operational if there was a \u201cspillover\u201d of the conflict in Yemen into Riyadh.<\/p>\n The tripartite pact, signed on Aug. 7, aims to strengthen collective deterrence and empower its signatory states to treat an attack against one of them as an attack against all of them.<\/p>\n Asked on a Pakistani TV show whether the pact could be activated following the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, he replied in the affirmative, reiterating there was no \u201cambiguity\u201d as the pact stipulated that aggression against one party was equivalent to aggression against all.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a joint defense pact. And unprovoked aggression or spillover of whatever is happening in Yemen into Saudi Arabia, definitely, the pact will become operational; there should be no doubt in this,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are bound by the terms and conditions of this pact and we will honour them in case there is a need.\u201d<\/p>\n According to Yemen analyst Hisham Al-Omeisy, \u201cWe are way beyond the concept of (the conflict) being domestic.\u201d The fighting remains short of all-out war, he added, with a negotiated settlement still the most realistic path forward, even if it remains distant for now.<\/p>\n However, Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst, is less optimistic about a diplomatic resolution. \u201cSaudi Arabia has realized that the Houthis have not been reasonable and there is very little chance of reaching a political settlement with them,\u201d he told CNN. 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