\n
<\/p>\n
Exports of\u00a0natural gas dropped by a staggering 95 per cent<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The finding comes in\u00a0analysis published by\u00a0the International Trade Centre (ITC), a multilateral agency that has a joint mandate with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and UN trade and development body UNCTAD.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The Strait,\u00a0located\u00a0south of Iran,\u00a0is responsible for\u00a0around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas flows and\u00a0fertilizers, including a third of globally traded urea.\u00a0<\/p>\n Since\u00a0the military escalation in\u00a0late February, reduced commercial passage, concerns over navigational safety and higher transport and insurance costs have affected trade flows far beyond the region<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Although recent\u00a0lulls\u00a0in\u00a0the fighting\u00a0have raised hopes that shipping could resume more fully, traffic\u00a0remains\u00a0far below normal levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n The analysis focuses\u00a0on 12\u00a0strategically important\u00a0energy,\u00a0fertilizer\u00a0and industrial products for which Hormuz-dependent economies are\u00a0important\u00a0global suppliers.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n This\u00a0group\u00a0comprises\u00a0Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi\u00a0Arabia\u00a0and the United Arab Emirates<\/strong>.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n Trade\u00a0data for April\u00a0reveals\u00a0that\u00a0combined merchandise exports across all products from\u00a0these\u00a0economies\u00a0declined by 21 per cent in value<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The ITC noted, however, that export values are also affected by sharp movements in international commodity prices triggered by the disruption itself, therefore\u00a0changes\u00a0in physical quantities provide complementary\u00a0evidence on the extent\u00a0of the disruption to actual trade flows.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n Across all 12 products, export volumes fell between April 2025 and April 2026.\u00a0Combined export volumes declined by 54 per cent<\/strong>, with liquified natural gas recording the steepest contraction, 95 per cent.\u00a0<\/p>\n Urea exports\u00a0declined\u00a0by 83 per cent,\u00a0followed by\u00a0methanol\u00a0(80 per cent)\u00a0and ammonia\u00a0(75 per cent.\u00a0Polymers of propylene\u00a0(or\u00a0polypropylene)\u00a0–\u00a0used for plastic packaging in consumer goods\u00a0–\u00a0were the least affected, declining by\u00a024 per cent.\u00a0<\/p>\n The largest absolute losses were in energy products\u00a0such as crude petroleum oil exports, which\u00a0fell by 28 million\u00a0tonnes<\/strong>,\u00a0followed by\u00a0refined petroleum oils and liquefied natural gas\u00a0which declined\u00a0by 7.3 million\u00a0tonnes\u00a0and 5.5 million\u00a0tonnes\u00a0respectively\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cSizeable falls in fertilizers, chemicals, plastics and\u00a0aluminium\u00a0show that the disruption affected a broader range of industries and supply chains<\/strong>,\u201d the authors noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n Meanwhile,\u00a0importing markets\u00a0were not affected in\u00a0the same way,\u00a0depending on factors such as\u00a0reliance on Hormuz suppliers, access to inventories and strategic reserves, domestic\u00a0demand\u00a0and ability to source from alternative suppliers.\u00a0<\/p>\n Japan, for example,\u00a0historically sourced 91 per cent of its crude petroleum oil imports from Hormuz-dependent economies<\/strong>. In April, the country\u00a0recorded a 64 per cent decline in total imports.\u00a0Other highly dependent markets such as the Republic of Korea and Malaysia faced the same situation.\u00a0<\/p>\n In contrast, Thailand recorded a 62 increase as refiners moved to secure\u00a0additional\u00a0cargoes from alternative suppliers and\u00a0maintain\u00a0supplies during the disruption.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Alternative suppliers\u00a0in fact\u00a0increased shipments for 10 of the 12 selected products\u00a0across all reporting markets,\u00a0yet\u00a0these gains\u00a0fully offset lower imports from Hormuz-dependent economies only for ammonia and polymers of propylene.\u00a0<\/p>\n The finding\u00a0suggests that trade diversion had begun\u00a0but had not fully replaced disrupted supplies by April\u00a0as some markets may have drawn on inventories or strategic reserves, increased domestic production where possible, or reduced consumption.\u00a0<\/p>\n The\u00a0ITC update also\u00a0examined other aspects of the crisis, including\u00a0trade measures adopted in response to the\u00a0disruption\u00a0such as\u00a0policies\u00a0aimed at ensuring adequate access to supplies,\u00a0particularly of\u00a0crude and refined oil.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\nCritical maritime corridor<\/h2>\n
Strategic products examined<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n
Decline in exports<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n
Importers seek alternatives<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n