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The government’s flagship NHS pledge to get back to hitting the 18-week waiting time target in England by the end of the parliament is hanging in the balance, experts say.<\/p>\n
An analysis by the Health Foundation shows, on current trends, waiting times will still be over 20 weeks by July 2029.<\/p>\n
The think-tank is warning the huge efforts being put into reducing waiting times also risks distracting from other priorities in the NHS, including improving access to GPs.<\/p>\n
But the government said it was pleased with the progress being made – and expected the pace of improvement to increase.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
The 18-week target requires 92% of patients to wait less than that amount of time. It has not been hit for a decade.<\/p>\n
Waiting times ballooned during the pandemic as hospitals scaled back on the amount of routine care they were doing.<\/p>\n
When Labour came to power, there were 7.6 million patients on waiting lists for treatments such as knee and hip replacements with 58.8% waiting less than 18 weeks.<\/p>\n
Over the past year that has improved to 61.3%.<\/p>\n
But even if the current rate of improvement continues, it will not be quite enough to hit the target, the Health Foundation said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Just over a third of trusts are making the necessary progress set out under the government’s waiting time plan published at the start of this year, the analysis said.<\/p>\n
And the think-tank warned progress could suffer if the rate of referrals rises more quickly than expected – something that is quite possible given the ageing population.<\/p>\n
The prospect of more industrial action – resident doctor members of the British Medical Association are still in dispute with the government – could further complicate matters, it added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Dr Francesca Cavallaro, from the Health Foundation, said: “The government has clearly made progress in reducing waiting times, but on current trends our analysis shows that the NHS would just fall short of meeting the 18-week standard by the end of the parliament. <\/p>\n
“The scale of the challenge remains significant and even getting close to meeting the target would be a considerable achievement. <\/p>\n
“But placing so much emphasis on the 18-week target risks slower progress on other key issues, such as improving access to GPs, which we know is the public’s top priority for the NHS.”<\/p>\n
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said a lot of progress was being made and productivity in the health service was improving. <\/p>\n
He said the extra money being invested in the NHS, which was introducing modern technology and leading to more evening and weekend working, would help accelerate progress.<\/p>\n
But he acknowledged strikes had caused problems. <\/p>\n
“We urge the BMA to work with us, not against us, as we drive down the longest waits and get the NHS back on track.”<\/p>\n
Tim Mitchell, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: “This analysis otherwise confirms what surgeons see every day – the NHS is still struggling to meet demand, and unless surgical capacity expands, the government will almost certainly fall short of its target.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n