Canberra\u2019s August 2025 announcement that it will purchase 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates\u00a0from Japan\u2019s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries sent ripples through the Indo-Pacific. The deal, worth tens of billions, was not only Australia\u2019s largest-ever naval procurement from a non-Western partner but also a powerful symbol of growing strategic trust between two countries once bitter adversaries.<\/strong><\/p>\nFor decades, Australia\u2019s naval acquisitions leaned heavily on British or American designs, with occasional forays into European shipbuilding. Yet this decision to align with Tokyo over ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems of Germany reflected something bigger than ship specifications. The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) judged the Japanese proposal more compatible with its operational requirements \u2014 a vessel longer, wider, and armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, integrated with advanced sensors, and designed for interoperability with allied systems.<\/p>\n
It was a technical decision, but also a geopolitical one. And it raises the inevitable question: if Australia and Japan can cooperate on frigates, why not take the next step and co-develop the Indo-Pacific\u2019s most pressing capability gap \u2014 a long-range, conventionally powered submarine?<\/p>\n
This idea is not new. In 2014\u201315, Canberra seriously considered buying Japanese\u00a0S\u014dry\u016b-class submarines<\/strong>\u00a0to replace its aging Collins fleet. That initiative collapsed by 2016 amid concerns over Japan\u2019s lack of experience exporting defence technology, capability mismatches, and political resistance within Australia\u2019s defence establishment. Instead, Canberra pivoted to France\u2019s Naval Group, signing a contract for 12 Attack-class submarines \u2014 a program that imploded in 2021 after spiraling costs and delays.<\/p>\nThat collapse cleared the path for\u00a0AUKUS<\/strong>, the landmark trilateral agreement with the United States and the United Kingdom to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. But AUKUS itself has run headlong into industrial bottlenecks. The United States\u2019 own shipyards are falling behind in delivering Virginia-class submarines to the US Navy, making it increasingly uncertain whether Washington can spare any boats for Canberra. The UK, while committed, faces capacity challenges of its own.<\/p>\nFormer Australian foreign minister\u00a0Alexander Downer<\/strong>\u00a0captured the reality bluntly earlier this year: South Australia lacks the industrial capacity to build nuclear submarines, and if even the US is struggling to maintain production schedules, expecting Australia to master such a feat quickly is unrealistic.<\/p>\nThis is not an argument against AUKUS. Nuclear-powered submarines remain the gold standard for endurance, stealth, and power projection. But as a complement to AUKUS \u2014 not a replacement \u2014 a jointly built, long-range, conventionally powered submarine with Japan could provide the Royal Australian Navy with a timely, credible capability.<\/p>\n
The urgency of this idea stems from three overlapping developments:<\/p>\n
\n- \n
China\u2019s naval surge.<\/strong>\u00a0The People\u2019s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is now the largest in the world by ship numbers, adding destroyers, frigates, and submarines at a rate unmatched by any other power. Its\u00a0China Coast Guard<\/strong>, the biggest in the world, is employed for coercive \u201cgrey-zone\u201d operations from the South China Sea to the Pacific Islands. Beijing is also testing intercontinental ballistic missiles over the South Pacific, underscoring the breadth of its strategic ambitions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
US capacity limits.<\/strong>\u00a0American naval shipbuilding is stretched to breaking point. The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program is consuming resources, while the Virginia-class production line is struggling to meet domestic demand. The United States\u2019 ability to provide surplus boats to Australia \u2014 once considered a near certainty \u2014 is now in doubt.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Japan\u2019s transformation.<\/strong>\u00a0Under Prime Minister\u00a0Shigeru Ishiba<\/strong>, Tokyo is doubling defence spending, acquiring counterstrike capabilities, and loosening constitutional restrictions on military cooperation. Japan, once a cautious security partner, is emerging as a proactive regional power. Its naval technology has advanced dramatically, and its\u00a0Mogami-class frigates<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Taigei-class submarines<\/strong>\u00a0are among the most sophisticated conventionally powered vessels in the world.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nThe convergence of these factors creates a narrow but significant opportunity: Australia and Japan can move beyond ad hoc defence cooperation and formalise a\u00a0defence alliance<\/strong> anchored in joint capability development.<\/p>\nA codeveloped submarine program would achieve several goals simultaneously:<\/p>\n
\n- \n
Timeliness.<\/strong>\u00a0A long-range conventional submarine could enter service years before Australia\u2019s first nuclear-powered boat, filling a dangerous capability gap as the Collins fleet ages.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Resilience.<\/strong>\u00a0By diversifying its naval partnerships, Australia would hedge against potential reversals in Washington \u2014 especially if a second Trump administration scales back commitments to allies.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Interoperability.<\/strong>\u00a0Built with Japanese technology but aligned with US systems, the boat would fit seamlessly into allied operations across the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Industrial strength.<\/strong>\u00a0Japan\u2019s proven production lines offer a level of reliability that Australia has long sought but rarely secured in submarine construction.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nAs former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense\u00a0Elbridge Colby<\/strong> has argued, deterrence in the Indo-Pacific depends on allies willing to share risks and shoulder more responsibility. A joint Australia\u2013Japan submarine would demonstrate precisely that kind of strategic imagination.<\/p>\nCritics might argue that such a project risks undermining AUKUS. But defence alliances are not mutually exclusive. The United States itself is a member of NATO, the Quad, and bilateral alliances across Asia. Each serves a different purpose, and together they reinforce deterrence.<\/p>\n
AUKUS remains vital \u2014 especially its \u201cPillar Two\u201d agenda on cyber, undersea systems, and advanced technologies. But Canberra must be realistic: if it struggles to secure even one Virginia-class submarine in the near term, and domestic nuclear construction lags, then a complementary program with Japan is not a betrayal of AUKUS but a\u00a0bolstering of its credibility<\/strong>.<\/p>\nWashington, if pragmatic, should welcome the move. As the US defense industrial base strains under the weight of its own commitments, allies developing credible, interoperable alternatives are an asset, not a liability.<\/p>\n
For Tokyo, too, the timing is auspicious. Japan has long been at the cutting edge of conventional submarine design, prioritising stealth, endurance, and advanced sonar capabilities to counter the PLAN in nearby seas. Its\u00a0S\u014dry\u016b<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Taigei<\/strong>\u00a0classes feature cutting-edge lithium-ion batteries, offering silent endurance that outpaces many rivals.<\/p>\nDomestic politics are also shifting. The Ishiba government\u2019s decision to double defence spending over five years marks a historic departure from Japan\u2019s postwar norm. The public, though still cautious, has shown greater acceptance of security partnerships, particularly with fellow democracies like Australia.<\/p>\n
A joint submarine program would allow Japan not only to deepen its defence industrial base but also to\u00a0institutionalise a new security partnership<\/strong> with Canberra. Beyond capability, it would signal Japan\u2019s willingness to shoulder greater regional responsibility \u2014 a message that would resonate in Washington and across Southeast Asia.<\/p>\nThe frigate deal of August 2025 is more than a procurement choice. It is proof of concept that Australia and Japan can align industrial capacity with strategic purpose. But to stop at frigates would be a wasted opportunity.<\/p>\n
A\u00a0formal defence pact<\/strong>, centred on a jointly developed submarine, could include:<\/p>\n\n- \n
Mutual operational planning<\/strong>\u00a0for contingencies in the South China Sea and Pacific.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Joint training exercises<\/strong>, building habits of interoperability.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Shared research and development<\/strong>\u00a0in undersea warfare, cyber, and unmanned systems.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
If politically feasible, even\u00a0mutual defence commitments<\/strong>, enshrining a bilateral guarantee akin to the US\u2013Japan Treaty.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nSuch a framework would not replace the US alliance but reinforce it, weaving a tighter web of capable maritime democracies committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n
Of course, this path is not without hurdles.<\/p>\n
\n- \n
Political sensitivities.<\/strong>\u00a0In both countries, debates over sovereignty and industrial jobs could complicate co-production. South Australia\u2019s powerful shipbuilding lobby may resist shifting too much work to Japan. In Tokyo, pacifist constituencies remain wary of deep military entanglements.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Strategic balancing.<\/strong>\u00a0Both nations must consider how Beijing would respond. A formal alliance, particularly one built around submarines designed for Indo-Pacific patrols, would be viewed as a direct challenge. Escalation risks must be managed.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Technical alignment.<\/strong>\u00a0Designing a truly long-range conventional submarine that meets Australia\u2019s endurance needs without sacrificing stealth or cost will be a formidable engineering challenge. Lessons from the failed French Attack-class deal should serve as caution.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nYet none of these obstacles are insurmountable. What they require is political will, strategic clarity, and a recognition that the status quo \u2014 relying solely on uncertain AUKUS timelines \u2014 carries risks of its own.<\/p>\n
If successful, the payoff would be profound. A jointly developed submarine would:<\/p>\n
\n- \n
Strengthen deterrence<\/strong>\u00a0against China\u2019s maritime coercion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Diversify Australia\u2019s defence dependencies<\/strong>, reducing overreliance on any single partner.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Embed Japan in a leadership role<\/strong>\u00a0in regional security, moving beyond its traditional reliance on the US alliance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
Send a message<\/strong>\u00a0to Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands that regional democracies are willing to act collectively to uphold rules and sovereignty.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nIt would also carry a symbolic weight. Eighty years after fighting each other across the Pacific, Australia and Japan would stand shoulder to shoulder as co-builders of one of the region\u2019s most advanced weapons systems \u2014 a testament to reconciliation, trust, and shared purpose.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s fleet grows larger by the month. US shipbuilding falters. AUKUS strains under its own ambitions. Amid these shifting currents, Australia and Japan face a choice. They can treat the frigate deal as an end in itself, or as the foundation of something greater.<\/p>\n
A jointly developed, long-range conventional submarine \u2014 embedded in a formal defence pact \u2014 would be more than a platform. It would be a statement: that middle powers are not passive spectators in the Indo-Pacific contest, but active shapers of its outcome.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
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