When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, few doubted he would double down on his trademark trade wars. What few predicted was that his sweeping tariffs would reshape the geopolitics of the world\u2019s largest emerging economies, inadvertently breathing new life into a bloc that had long struggled to define itself: BRICS.<\/strong><\/p>\nThe group\u2014originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa\u2014has grown to include new members like Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia. Long seen as more symbolic than strategic, BRICS had been plagued by internal divisions, diverging interests, and uneven development paths.<\/p>\n
But Trump\u2019s tariff barrage has changed the equation. By imposing some of the steepest penalties on BRICS members\u2014far higher than those levied against traditional U.S. allies\u2014the U.S. president has given the loose coalition something it rarely had before: a common grievance.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s tariff agenda is sweeping. China, his favorite target, faces the most punishing blow: up to 145% tariffs if no deal is reached. Brazil and India have each been hit with 50% duties, with India\u2019s rate partly linked to its continued imports of discounted Russian oil. South Africa faces a 30% levy, while Egypt and other newer BRICS members are bracing for hikes of their own.<\/p>\n
Trump justifies the measures as part of his pledge to punish \u201canti-American policies.\u201d In stump speeches and tweets, he has branded BRICS as a \u201cdead project\u201d and dismissed its ambitions as little more than \u201cChina\u2019s power grab.\u201d Yet the numbers tell a different story.<\/p>\n
Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official, sees the tariffs as counterproductive. \u201cThese penalties don\u2019t intimidate BRICS,\u201d he told DW. \u201cThey create a shared incentive to reduce reliance on the U.S., even if agendas differ. In many ways, Washington is doing BRICS\u2019 job for them.\u201d<\/p>\n
The most immediate response to Trump\u2019s tariffs has been financial. BRICS nations, already wary of dollar dependency after years of U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, have accelerated moves to trade in local currencies. Central banks from Moscow to Pretoria have stepped up gold purchases, signaling intent to diversify reserves.<\/p>\n
Russia and China lead the charge. Over 90% of bilateral trade between the two now takes place in yuan and rubles. Brazil and China are piloting yuan-based settlement systems. Even India\u2014traditionally cautious about de-dollarization\u2014is exploring rupee-based mechanisms with Russia and China.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump says BRICS is dead,\u201d noted Max Boot, a foreign policy analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, in a recent Washington Post op-ed. \u201cBut by pushing allies and rivals alike into the same corner, he is committing strategic malpractice. He is diminishing U.S. power by perversely uniting countries that have little in common besides opposition to Washington\u2019s heavy hand.\u201d<\/p>\n
These dynamics will be on display at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, northern China, where leaders from BRICS and beyond are gathering this week. President Xi Jinping will host Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2014the first time the three will meet in this format since 2019.<\/p>\n
The Kremlin has lobbied hard for trilateral talks among China, India, and Russia. The aim is not only to bolster BRICS\u2019 credibility but also to bridge long-standing rifts, particularly between New Delhi and Beijing. \u201cWe want to strengthen the core of BRICS,\u201d a Russian diplomat told Izvestia. \u201cThat means putting aside old disputes and showing unity in the face of U.S. pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n
For India, Trump\u2019s tariffs are a game-changer. New Delhi has reopened direct flights with China, eased visa restrictions, and expanded trade discussions. During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi\u2019s recent visit to Delhi, Beijing pledged to boost rare earth supplies\u2014minerals India desperately needs for its green energy transition and defense industry.<\/p>\n
This outreach is striking given that India and China nearly went to war in 2020 over their disputed Himalayan border.<\/p>\n
Skepticism remains. India distrusts Beijing\u2019s strategic ambitions, not least its deep ties with Pakistan and its massive infrastructure projects across Asia. Shilan Shah, an economist at Capital Economics, argues that India is unlikely to fully embrace China. \u201cCheap Chinese imports are already undermining India\u2019s efforts to build domestic industry,\u201d Shah noted. \u201cThat creates political headaches for Modi, who must balance anti-China sentiment at home with pragmatic cooperation abroad.\u201d<\/p>\n
India\u2019s reliance on the U.S. market complicates matters further. In 2024, India exported $77.5 billion to the U.S.\u2014nearly three times its trade with China. Washington is also a crucial technology partner for India\u2019s IT and defense sectors.<\/p>\n
Still, Trump\u2019s tariffs make cooperation with BRICS attractive, at least on specific issues like currency settlement, gold purchases, and energy supplies. As Srivastava put it, \u201cBRICS isn\u2019t about perfect unity\u2014it\u2019s about pragmatic deals that chip away at U.S. leverage.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brazil, meanwhile, is strengthening ties with China, which already absorbs 26% of Brazilian exports\u2014twice the share of the U.S. In a recent phone call, President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva and Xi Jinping pledged to deepen agricultural trade and cooperate on renewable energy.<\/p>\n
For Lula, BRICS offers a platform to assert independence from Washington without fully alienating it. Brazil continues to rely on U.S. financial markets, but Trump\u2019s tariffs have pushed Bras\u00edlia to hedge its bets.<\/p>\n
South Africa, too, shows little inclination to bow to U.S. pressure. Sanusha Naidu, a senior researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue, says Pretoria views BRICS as central to its long-term strategy. \u201cSouth Africa isn\u2019t going to reverse its BRICS commitments,\u201d Naidu explained. \u201cIt sees value in global governance reform, academic exchanges, and building south-south cooperation. Tariffs won\u2019t change that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Yet beneath the new momentum lie contradictions. BRICS has expanded to 10 members, but the larger it grows, the harder it is to reconcile diverging national interests. Saudi Arabia\u2019s hesitation to formalize membership reflects these tensions.<\/p>\n
Critics warn that BRICS is becoming more authoritarian as it expands. The original mission\u2014creating a voice for emerging economies in global governance\u2014now risks being overshadowed by an anti-Western posture driven by Moscow and Beijing.<\/p>\n
Even so, trade within BRICS is rising. Research by Boston Consulting Group shows intra-BRICS trade growing faster than BRICS-G7 trade, though hydrocarbons dominate. Ironically, the bloc imposes more barriers on each other than Western countries do among themselves. Still, momentum is shifting.<\/p>\n
Signs of deeper cooperation include rollback of anti-dumping duties, proposals for a BRICS-wide free trade agreement, and coordinated calls for reform of the World Trade Organization.<\/p>\n
Mihaela Papa of Tufts University predicts greater political backing for intra-BRICS trade campaigns. \u201cWe can expect \u2018Buy BRICS\u2019 initiatives, new projects like the BRICS grain exchange, and expanded local currency settlement mechanisms,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
A Russian-backed idea of a single BRICS currency remains shelved, but alternative systems are proliferating. As Srivastava puts it: \u201cThe dollar will remain dominant, but yuan, rupee, and ruble settlement systems will steadily chip away at its monopoly. Trump\u2019s tariffs accelerate this process.\u201d<\/p>\n
The question looming over Tianjin is whether Trump has forged, however inadvertently, a tighter alliance among America\u2019s biggest rivals.<\/p>\n
What was once a fractured coalition of states\u2014often more at odds with each other than with Washington\u2014now finds itself united by necessity. The tariffs may not resolve Sino-Indian border disputes or erase ideological rifts, but they have created incentives for cooperation that did not exist before.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why analysts like Boot argue that Trump is undermining U.S. strategy. \u201cThe genius of U.S. foreign policy since World War II has been to prevent hostile powers from coalescing,\u201d he wrote. \u201cBy punishing countries that were once friendly or neutral, Trump is reversing that logic. He is driving them together.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump promised his second term would be about \u201cAmerica First.\u201d But in targeting BRICS with some of the highest tariffs in modern history, he may be writing a different story: one of America\u2019s rivals finding common cause.<\/p>\n
For now, BRICS remains messy, contradictory, and divided. But thanks to Trump\u2019s heavy hand, it is also more energized than at any point in the past decade.<\/p>\n
The bloc may not be poised to replace the U.S.-led order, but it no longer looks dead. Instead, it looks like a work in progress\u2014one accelerated not by Beijing, Moscow, or Bras\u00edlia, but by Washington.<\/p>\n
And as leaders gather in Tianjin, the irony is impossible to miss: Donald Trump, self-styled enemy of BRICS, may yet prove to be its unlikely benefactor.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
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