{"id":106369,"date":"2026-11-04T21:03:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T21:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gulftimes.ae\/?p=106369"},"modified":"2026-11-04T21:03:00","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T21:03:00","slug":"arab-news-will-democratic-control-of-congress-change-trumps-middle-east-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gulftimes.ae\/?p=106369","title":{"rendered":"Arab News | Will Democratic control of Congress change Trump\u2019s Middle East policy?"},"content":{"rendered":"


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LONDON: As it became clear that the Democrats had taken control of both branches of Congress in this week\u2019s midterms, US President Donald Trump struck a conciliatory tone when he called into Fox News late on Tuesday night.<\/p>\n

The Democrats had done \u201ca good job,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cI can work with them on many things.\u201d However, during a call-in that same day to another TV station, Trump said: \u201cI have the ultimate power. It\u2019s called veto.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the run-up to the elections, polls had shown that Trump\u2019s popularity was at an all-time low, thanks in large part to the unpopular Iran war and the impact it has had on gas prices, factors which appear to have pushed many voters into the Democratic camp.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think a part of it was Iran,\u201d Trump said. \u201cBut at the same time, people understood the importance of what I\u2019ve done with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

US Senator-elect James Talarico speaks during a midterm election night event at the Long Center for the Performing Arts on November 03, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Getty Images via AFP) <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What Trump had done with Iran, said Vice President JD Vance in a social media post on Wednesday, may have cost Republicans control of Congress for six years. \u201cThe reason we lost is the war,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that\u2019s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regardless, it remains to be seen whether the loss of both the Senate and the House of Representatives will have any impact on Trump\u2019s Middle East policy during the remaining two years of his presidency.<\/p>\n

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, is not convinced that Trump will be much constrained between now and the end of his presidential term in 2028.<\/p>\n

\"Democratic
Democratic Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed during his victory speech on Tuesday night. El-Sayed become the first American muslim senator by campaigning against the cost of living crisis caused y the war in Iran. (REUTERS file)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cFor the moment, it will be business as usual,\u201d he told Arab News. \u201cThe executive branch has amassed so much power for itself over successive administrations, both Republican and Democratic, relative to Congress when it comes to national security and war-making powers.<\/p>\n

\u201cNot much will change in the lame duck session between now and January, when a new Congress is sworn in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mohamed Chebaro, a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years\u2019 experience covering war and diplomacy in the region, agreed that \u201cthe new balance of power in Congress will not impede Trump going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, he said that for the immediate future, \u201cthe situation will remain highly volatile and open to all possibilities.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf he sees that striking Iran will be necessary, he will. Congress can shout as much as it likes but the presidential system of the US, despite its checks and balances, will not add up to much.\u201d<\/p>\n

Indeed, \u201cTrump without a compliant Congress could be even more dangerous. Reason is not part of Trump\u2019s \u2018art of the deal,\u2019\u201d Chebaro said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf he believes he cannot extend his mandate or ensure his regime\u2019s continuity through another strong Republican, then he will sink the US further in the Middle East and leave the mess to be cleaned up by his successor.\u201d<\/p>\n

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From January the Democrats will be able to block Republican legislation but will struggle to force through bills of their own.<\/p>\n

According to reports in US media, the Democrats are planning to spend their first 100 hours in control of Congress passing a flurry of bills aimed at undoing many of Trump\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

High up on the list is a proposed measure to force the president to either end the war in Iran or seek congressional authorization to continue it, which would amount to the same thing.<\/p>\n

But while it is possible that some populist bills might win enough opposition support, without Republican backing most will not pass into law.<\/p>\n

While the Democrats have won back control of the 100-seat Senate with 56 seats (including those of two independent allies) to the Republicans\u2019 44, it takes 60 votes to get a bill into law.<\/p>\n

There is an even higher hurdle to clear to disarm a president\u2019s ability to veto a bill, which he can do unless it has two-thirds support in both the House and the Senate.<\/p>\n

\"President
President Donald Trump posted this image Wednesday on his Truth Social platform, apparently to reiterate his verbal statements that he would not hesitate to veto any legislation by a Democratic Party-dominated Congress that do not align with his programs. (Screen grab from Truth Social: @realDonaldTrump)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nevertheless, there are other ways a Congress in the hands of the Democrats could pull the plug on military action in Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats now have the power to stop the war through control of the purse,\u201d said Trita Parsi, the Iranian Swedish executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey not only have a mandate to do so but they have an order from the American public to do so.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they fail, or don\u2019t even try, the very fury that crushed Trump at the polls will be turned against the Democrats, who will be seen as complicit in this illegal war.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt wasn\u2019t the strength of the Democratic vision that delivered a crushing defeat of Trump but the American people\u2019s fury over the cost-of-living crisis produced by the Iran war.<\/p>\n

\u201cProponents of war, however, will push very hard to get Trump to restart the war before January, since they realize that this is their last opportunity given the coming Democratic control of Congress.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"US
US Marines conduct a live-fire exercise aboard amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, at an undisclosed location in the US Central Command area of responsibility, during the Operation Epic Fury attack on Iran March 27, 2026. (US Marine Corps\/Handout via REUTERS)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East, North Africa and Turkiye Security at the Royal United Services Institute, agrees this is a very real possibility.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom January Trump will be congressionally constrained given the Democratic landslide,\u201d she told Arab News.<\/p>\n

But that, \u201cleaves us with the possibility of renewed strikes against Iran within the next two months, even as early as within the next two weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

The wildcard now was \u201chow Trump will choose to shape his legacy on the Iran file,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWill he become ever more fixated on a harder, more ambitious campaign to salvage the narrative that his Iran war was necessary to prevent Tehran from becoming a breakout nuclear state?<\/p>\n

\u201cOr will he favor a diplomatic win that he can tout as his own success, even though Gulf states, Turkiye and Pakistan are doing the heavy lifting?\u201d<\/p>\n

\"An
An F\/A-18F Super Hornet prepares to make an arrested landing on the flight deck of aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln during the ongoing conflict with Iran August 4, 2026. (US Navy\/Handout via REUTERS)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It might, Ozcelik said, \u201cbe somewhere in between, where Trump authorizes precision strikes targeting Iran\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile facilities \u2014 enough of a campaign to downgrade Iran\u2019s capabilities but below the threshold of what could unleash Iran\u2019s wrath on the Gulf.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe danger is that Tehran has made it clear that any strike will be met with a harsher and disproportionate response. Whether Trump listens or whether he instead takes another gamble and risks placing Gulf allies at risk again is the known unknown today.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Democrats have their sights trained on Trump\u2019s Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader of the House, who is poised to become the first black speaker, has announced his party\u2019s intention to \u201crun Pete Hegseth out of town.\u201d<\/p>\n

A proposal has already been made, by a Republican congressman, to impeach Hegseth.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy engaging in hostilities in Iran for more than 90 days without congressional authorization, Secretary Hegseth is breaking the law and must be held accountable,\u201d Thomas Massie said after presenting his resolution to the House in September.<\/p>\n

\"President
President Donald Trump (R) listens as US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks during a roundtable discussion on cybercrime in the East Room of the White House on October 21, 2026 in Washington, DC. (AFP File)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The resolution did not pass, nor did an earlier one, submitted by Massie in March, seeking to force Trump to withdraw US forces \u201cfrom unauthorized hostilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

But quite possibly some Republicans who survived the midterms might now be more amenable to cross-party action when it comes to the conduct of the Iran war.<\/p>\n

As Massie put it in a post on X on Wednesday: \u201cI wonder how many of my colleagues would like a chance to go back and change their vote on my Iran War Powers Resolution?\u201d<\/p>\n

James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, believes Trump and his inner circle are unlikely to be figuring out ways to collaborate with the Democrats.<\/p>\n

\u201cI was comparing this to the defeat President Bill Clinton suffered in the 1994 midterms, (when Republicans took back control of both chambers of Congress),\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe realistically assessed the situation and decided that if he was going to make anything of his presidency he had to figure out a way to govern with these guys.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey found a way to pass legislation and bend to the wishes of the Republicans on several issues.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut Trump is not Clinton. He has not shown any indication that he\u2019s more interested in governing than conflict and I worry that he\u2019ll see this as a challenge, not as an opportunity to govern but to continue to provoke.<\/p>\n

\"With
With Democrats now set to take control of the US Congress, nobody knows whether President Trump would make good his threat to resume his campaign to degrade Iran\u2019s military capabilities. (X: @Centcom)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised if Stephen Miller (Trump\u2019s deputy chief of staff for policy) is in the White House right now, plotting and planning what leeway they have to do things without Congress.\u201d<\/p>\n

Before the midterms, Trump hinted several times that hostilities with Iran would be resumed after the elections.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe was restrained by the midterms but now he\u2019s not,\u201d Zogby said.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow we\u2019re in a legacy situation and does he assume (a return to conflict) will be to his advantage?<\/p>\n

\u201cIran isn\u2019t done and the question is, can it be done by yet another attack or series of attacks on Iran, when that hasn\u2019t worked before?\u201d<\/p>\n

\"A
A banner depicting US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US Vice President JD Vance and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, on a street in Tehran, November 3, 2026. (West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The alternative \u201cis to do what the Saudis and the Omanis and the Pakistanis and Turks are doing, which is, \u2018Let\u2019s sit down and see what we can figure out here to make this a reasonable solution to create some security and stability in the Gulf.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

But \u201cthe one thing about Donald Trump that\u2019s predictable is that he\u2019s unpredictable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Also unpredictable is how Iran will respond to the result of the midterms.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Tehran, there is a palpable sense of vindication at the midterm results,\u201d Ozcelik said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWill Iranian negotiators now have greater leeway to reach a deal with Trump via regional interlocutors, recognizing that they have come out of this on top, or will they instead double down and demand more from the US upfront \u2014 sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets \u2014 ahead of any new memorandum of understanding 2.0?<\/p>\n

\u201cThat is also unclear. What is clear is that Trump cannot avoid Iran now, even if he may want to. The Strait of Hormuz crisis rumbles on unresolved as does the Houthi-Saudi confrontation.\u201d<\/p>\n

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