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DUBAI: Israel\u2019s election next week may change its leader, but not its strategy: Iran will remain its chief adversary, military force will continue to be its preferred tool and Palestinian statehood a distant prospect, regional policymakers and analysts say.<\/p>\n
That is because the strategic assumptions underpinning Israeli policy were hardened by the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israeli communities by Palestinian militant group Hamas and by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.<\/p>\n
If anything, Israel could toughen its security policy, the analysts said, as victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the backing of far-right coalition partners could embolden him to step up the war with Iran, tighten Israel\u2019s grip on the occupied West Bank and push diplomacy further to the margins. Israel\u2019s security doctrine now rests on three pillars: breaking Iran, holding buffer zones beyond its borders and using force to deter enemies.<\/p>\n
The real divide is one of degree rather than direction \u2014 how aggressively Israel fights its wars, how far it expands Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether any leader opts for diplomacy, the analysts said.<\/p>\n
From Tehran to Riyadh, Tuesday\u2019s election is not seen as a potential turning point but as a test of whether the Middle East is settling into a long confrontation, where wars \u200cebb and flow while \u200cthe underlying conflicts are unresolved.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf Netanyahu is elected, he\u2019ll do whatever he thinks he wants to do,\u201d said Aviv \u200cBushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu. \u201cExpansion of the settlements will continue. The wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat you see now is what you\u2019ll see after the election, maybe even more aggressively,\u201d he said. \u201cAs long as Iran is in such a situation, it\u2019s a waste of time talking about Palestine.\u201d Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel must prioritize \u201cprevention and offense over containment and defense\u201d, including pre-emptive strikes to thwart emerging threats, while establishing Israel as a regional power and maximizing its independence in armaments.<\/p>\n
Why the course is unlikely to change<\/strong><\/p>\n The election pits Netanyahu\u2019s right-wing Likud and its ultranationalist allies against an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot\u2019s Yashar party.<\/p>\n Palestinian analyst Ghassan Al-Khatib sees no prospect of a fundamental shift in policy toward the Palestinians, with Israeli political parties competing to project harder-line positions as public opinion moves further to the right. \u201cThe substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and yes to further settlement expansion. On this, they are all in agreement,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n A government led by Netanyahu\u2019s opponents might seek to repair \u200cIsrael\u2019s international standing by curbing some settler violence or pursuing settlement expansion with less fanfare. But such changes would \u200cbe a shift in style rather than substance, Al-Khatib said.<\/p>\n In response to Reuters questions on Iran and the West Bank, a State Department spokesperson said Washington would continue to pressure Tehran \u201cas long \u200cas Iran devotes its energy revenues to financing attacks on our allies, supporting terrorism around the world, and pursuing other destabilizing actions, we will use all the tools \u200cat our disposal to hold the regime accountable.\u201d The spokesperson also said the United States did not support Israel annexing the West Bank.<\/p>\n \u201cA stable West Bank keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration\u2019s goal to achieve peace in the region,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel\u2019s security establishment and much of its political class share a common strategic outlook, centered on confronting Iran, maintaining \u201cforward defense\u201d and preserving military deterrence, reducing the scope for big policy shifts. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who has conducted research in the West Bank, said \u200cgrowing settler violence, mounting Palestinian frustration and the absence of a \u201cpolitical horizon\u201d had created combustible conditions, where even a minor trigger could spark a wider uprising.<\/p>\n \u2018Venomous octopous\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n Some regional policymakers ask whether Israel\u2019s confrontation with Iran has become the organizing principle of Middle East security, regardless of who wins the election. US President Donald Trump\u2019s praise of Netanyahu as a \u201cgreat warrior prime minister\u201d has reinforced expectations that the Israeli leader will try to finish the campaign against Tehran if he retains power.<\/p>\n Netanyahu has made clear his ambitions extend beyond containing Iran to toppling its clerical rulers.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is only one way to remove this threat once and for all: overthrow the regime in Iran,\u201d he said at a military officer graduation ceremony on Wednesday, adding it was his directive to the military, Mossad and other security agencies. \u201cCompleting the task means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran, the head of the venomous octopus,\u201d he said in another speech this week.<\/p>\n But military and political analysts question whether anything short of a US-Israeli ground invasion would force Tehran to abandon what it views as its core security interests in what it sees as an existential fight.<\/p>\n After surviving months of war, Iran may be betting it can outlast its opponents while continuing to exert pressure through regional allies.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a quagmire,\u201d Young said. \u201cThe Iranians can outlast Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been weakened, but the broader network of Iran-aligned groups has survived and the conflict could strengthen Tehran\u2019s determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent, the analysts said.<\/p>\n For all the alarm Netanyahu causes in the Arab world, some Gulf leaders still see him as the Israeli politician most likely to keep Iran under pressure.<\/p>\n This creates a dilemma for them. They oppose what they view as his expansionist policies but want Iranian influence curbed. \u201cNetanyahu\u2019s policies in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon are damaging,\u201d said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center. \u201cAs for Iran, a settlement is needed before the conflict escalates further. If Iran\u2019s role is not curbed, the region could be heading toward 50 years of Iranian hegemony.\u201d<\/p>\n (Additional reporting from Maayan Lubell in Jerusalem, Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by Timothy Heritage and Kate Mayberry)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n