Battered but defiant – where next for Hezbollah in Lebanon?

Over the years, Hezbollah, the Shia Muslim militia, political and social movement, cemented its position as Lebanon’s most powerful group. Backed by Iran, it built a military force more formidable than the Lebanese army. The use of violence was always an option. A strong parliamentary bloc meant that no major decision was possible without its consent while Lebanon’s fractured political system gave it representation in the government. In short, Hezbollah had the ability to paralyse the state – and many times did so.

The latest conflict started in October 2023, when Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel as Israel launched a war in Gaza in response to the Hamas attacks. The hostilities escalated dramatically last September, as Israel had penetrated the group in ways then unimaginable. First, pagers carried by its members exploded. Then their walkie-talkies. An unrelenting air campaign and subsequent invasion of the south killed more than 4,000 people including many civilians, left areas with a significant presence of Shia Muslims – which form the bulk of Hezbollah’s support – in ruins, and severely damaged the group’s arsenal.

Many of its leaders were assassinated, most notably Nasrallah, who had been Hezbollah’s face for more than three decades. His successor, former number two Naim Qassem, who is not as charismatic or influential, has admitted they suffered painful losses. The ceasefire deal that came into force in November was essentially a surrender by the group, which is considered a terrorist organisation by the US, the UK and others.