“The humanitarian consequences of the Middle East escalation are worsening by the day,” OCHA said in its latest update.  

Since Wednesday, civilian casualties have been recorded in Iran and Kuwait, while damage or destruction to critical infrastructure has been highlighted in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. 

Civilians at growing risk 

In Iran, a new wave of strikes was reported on Thursday in the provinces of Fars, Hormozgan, Bushehr and Khuzestan, including the country’s main oil-producing region. 

Local sources reported that a strike in Qeshm, Hormozgan province, hit a residential building, killing three civilians, including a two-year-old. Two other children were reportedly injured. 

Iranian health authorities said that as of 27 July, at least 60 people have been killed, and 670 injured, since hostilities escalated a month ago. 

UN agencies and humanitarian partners already operating in Iran continue to support the response to the growing humanitarian needs. 

Critical aid lifelines under pressure 

The disruption is also affecting countries that play a key role in humanitarian operations in the region. Jordan and Egypt remain vital lifelines for aid deliveries and medical evacuations in this regard. 

As fighting intensifies, OCHA said it will continue to monitor the humanitarian impact.  The agency called on all parties to uphold their obligations under international humanitarian law, which includes protecting both civilians and vital infrastructure from harm. 

Five months have passed since the current crisis erupted following the US-Israeli bombing of Iran, and retaliatory strikes by Tehran against Gulf States and Jordan, with impacts felt throughout the region and beyond.  

An agreement signed in June establishing a ceasefire framework collapsed weeks later over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping corridor for oil, liquified natural gas and fertilisers. 

The latest strike, which the United States said had been carried out as part of its blockade enforcement operations, involved the Palau-flagged tanker MT Settebello near the coast of Oman.

Tit-for-tat strikes by the US and Iran following the apparent suspension of negotiations to end the war threaten to accelerate, with President Trump on social media promising to hit Iran “very hard” and “assume total control of their oil and gas markets.”

The UN Secretary-General is “deeply concerned” by the continuing escalation, his spokesperson said in a statement on Thursday.

António Guterres urged all parties to return to the full implementation of the ceasefire and warned that any further deterioration could trigger “a full resumption of the conflict, with unpredictable consequences for the region and the world, especially the most vulnerable countries.”

Attacks ‘simply unacceptable’

According to UN maritime agency, the latest incident brings the number of confirmed seafarer fatalities to 14 since the crisis began on 28 February. The agency has verified 46 attacks on international shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz during that period.

International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez strongly condemned the attack, calling them “simply unacceptable.”

“I strongly condemn any act from any party that endangers the lives of seafarers and the safety of international shipping,” he said.

Under pressure

Beyond the immediate loss of life, the UN maritime agency warns that thousands of civilian seafarers remain exposed to mounting risks.

Across the wider Gulf region, roughly 20,000 seafarers are estimated to remain aboard commercial and offshore vessels. IMO says many are operating under sustained security threats and severe psychological pressure, while some crews remain detained by parties to the conflict.

‘A global food security risk’

While the Strait of Hormuz is often viewed through the lens of energy markets, the consequences of an uptick in fighting extend far beyond oil.

Earlier this week, UN Food and Agriculture Organization Director-General Qu Dongyu said the closure and disruption of the waterway represented “a global food security risk.”

Around 35 per cent of global crude oil exports, 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, between 20 and 30 per cent of global fertilizer exports and roughly half of global sulphur exports pass through the narrow maritime corridor, he noted.

“These flows are essential for global food production,” Mr. Qu said.

The greatest danger, FAO warned at the outset of the crisis, was not an immediate shortage of food but a “delayed shock” to fertilizer supplies and agricultural production.

One hundred days later, those concerns are becoming increasingly visible. Farmers across Africa, Asia and Latin America are facing higher production costs and difficult decisions over fertilizer use, crop choices and investment.

This could translate into weaker harvests and higher food prices in the months ahead.

Food prices begin to climb

Signs of that pressure are already emerging. FAO reported that its cereal price index rose 2.6 per cent in May compared with April and was nearly five per cent higher than a year earlier.

Wheat prices increased 3.4 per cent month-on-month and 7.8 per cent compared with May 2025, while rice prices rose 2.7 per cent.

The agency has urged governments to keep trade open, avoid export restrictions on agricultural inputs, protect food corridors and secure alternative logistics routes. It is also promoting more efficient fertilizer use, precision agriculture and alternative products.

Aid workers also impacted

According to a logistics bulletin from the UN World Food Programme (WFP) in late May, the crisis has disrupted regional transport corridors, ports, airspace, border crossings and fuel supply chains across the Middle East and beyond.

The effects are being felt particularly in Afghanistan, Lebanon, the occupied Palestinian territory, Syria, Yemen and of course Iran, while disruptions are also spilling into humanitarian operations in East Africa.

Fuel prices have risen sharply in several countries. Since the crisis began, diesel prices have increased by more than 62 per cent in Lebanon and 44 per cent in Yemen, while gasoline prices have climbed by more than 60 per cent in Pakistan.

A crisis with global consequences

More than 100 days after hostilities began, disruptions in the strait continue to reverberate with economic and humanitarian consequences far beyond the Middle East – affecting commercial shipping routes, aid corridors, farms, food markets, fuel prices and households around the world.

On Thursday, Secretary-General Guterres once again urged all parties to return to the full implementation of the ceasefire and avoid any further deterioration – reiterating the call he made yesterday at a high-level Security Council meeting.

“The only way forward is through genuine dialogue and negotiations,” he said, calling on the US and Iran to “redouble their efforts towards a peaceful, comprehensive and durable agreement that advances regional and international peace and security.”

“The humanitarian context in Somalia is worsening faster than we originally projected and expected,” said George Conway, the UN’s top aid official in Somalia, a situation made worse by the unresolved conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing global supply chain crisis that has resulted.

 “Children are paying the highest price. Nearly two million young children are acutely malnourished, meaning they’re dangerously undernourished and physically weakened, placing them at high risk of illness or death,” Mr. Conway stressed.

“Almost half a million are so severely malnourished that they require urgent treatment to survive”, the veteran humanitarian added.

Middle East war fallout

The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), meanwhile, highlighted numerous places where healthcare to treat disease linked to acute hunger is no longer available or stretched thin by supply chain delays, “due to all the disruptions that are happening in the Middle East”, said spokesperson Ricardo Pires.

Nearly one in three people in Somalia is critically food insecure, according to the latest UN-backed expert assessment from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) platform. It defines famine as a situation in which at least one in five households have an extreme lack of food and face starvation and destitution, resulting in extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition and death.

Assistance is needed most urgently in South West state, where the UN has confirmed “a real and credible risk of famine in Barakaba district”, Mr. Conway continued. 

While Somalia’s people have endured drought since 2024, the current Gu rainy season from April to June has brought some relief in localized areas. But there are increasing concerns that not enough rain will fall, heightening the need for humanitarian assistance which is already proving prohibitively expensive. 

Fuel price hikes

“Given the drought situation and the drying up of water points, a lot of communities are reliant on water trucking,” Mr. Conway said. “And the cost of water trucking obviously increases with the crisis with the cost of fuel. So, in some locations, we’ve seen water prices for water trucking triple over the course of the past month.”

Ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) is the go-to treatment for children suffering from severe hunger, but its continued supply is also in question, the longer the Middle East crisis continues to impact fuel prices and particularly air freight.

“We have a factory in Nairobi that produces a lot of the RUTF that we provide for Africa and other countries, but Somalia is a specific case whereby moving these supplies by road is not as feasible,” UNICEF’s Mr. Pires explained. “We depend on air freight and obviously with the fuel rising, the fuel prices rising so significantly, that cost will become very complicated for us to manage looking forward…It’s a matter of life or death for them.”

High-stakes ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the United States entered their second consecutive day on Sunday in Pakistan’s capital, with both sides signaling cautious optimism despite persistent disagreements on key issues. According to reports citing a White House official, the direct talks have already stretched beyond 15 hours and were still ongoing late into Sunday, underscoring both the urgency and complexity of the discussions.

The negotiations mark a significant diplomatic milestone. For the first time in 47 years—since the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979—senior leaders from Tehran and Washington are engaged in sustained, direct, high-level dialogue. The talks are being closely watched across the globe, not only because of their historical significance but also due to their potential to de-escalate a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and sent shockwaves through the global economy.

The current crisis traces its origins to February 28, when coordinated attacks by the United States and Israel targeted Iranian positions, triggering a broader conflict. The ensuing war quickly expanded beyond bilateral hostilities, affecting regional alliances and trade routes, particularly in energy markets. Oil prices surged, global supply chains were disrupted, and financial markets experienced volatility as fears of a prolonged regional war mounted.

Amid mounting international pressure, a temporary ceasefire brokered by Pakistan came into effect on April 8. This two-week pause in hostilities created a narrow window for diplomacy, leading directly to the ongoing talks in Islamabad.

Pakistan’s role as mediator has been widely recognized as pivotal. Leveraging its diplomatic relationships with both Tehran and Washington, Islamabad facilitated the initial agreement and is now hosting the negotiations at the Serena Hotel, where delegations are working to finalize technical frameworks for a potential long-term ceasefire.

The US delegation is led by Vice President J.D. Vance, accompanied by senior figures including Jared Kushner and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Their Iranian counterparts are headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi playing a central role in negotiations.

Saturday night saw intense rounds of face-to-face discussions, culminating in the exchange of written proposals and draft agreements. These documents outline preliminary understandings as well as areas of disagreement, which are now being scrutinized by expert committees.

The talks have been highly structured, with specialized working groups addressing a wide array of issues. These include security arrangements, political frameworks, military de-escalation mechanisms, economic cooperation, legal guarantees, and nuclear oversight. Diplomats familiar with the process describe the discussions as “comprehensive but challenging,” reflecting the depth of mistrust accumulated over decades.

Despite progress in some areas, several critical issues remain unresolved.

Foremost among them is Iran’s nuclear program. The United States is pressing for stringent limitations and enhanced monitoring mechanisms, while Iran insists on its sovereign right to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. This issue has long been a flashpoint in US-Iran relations and continues to complicate efforts to reach a durable agreement.

Sanctions relief is another major sticking point. Iran has demanded the immediate lifting of economic sanctions that have severely impacted its economy. In addition, Tehran is seeking the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets held abroad. The US, however, appears to favor a phased approach, linking sanctions relief to verifiable compliance with any agreement.

Regional dynamics further complicate the negotiations. Iran has called for an immediate halt to Israel’s ongoing military operations in Lebanon, framing it as a prerequisite for broader de-escalation. This demand introduces an additional layer of complexity, as it involves actors not directly present at the Islamabad talks.

Iranian officials have been explicit in their warnings. They have stated that if the negotiations fail, responsibility will not rest solely with Israel but also with the United States, arguing that the policies and actions of the two countries are closely aligned.

As the talks continue behind closed doors, both sides are carefully managing public messaging.

Iranian President Masoud Pajhwok, in a statement posted on social media, emphasized his government’s commitment to defending national interests. He expressed confidence in the negotiating team’s resolve, stating that they would act with courage and clarity. At the same time, he reassured the Iranian public that the government would stand by them regardless of the outcome.

On the American side, President Donald Trump struck a more forceful tone prior to the talks, warning that failure to reach a peace agreement could result in renewed military action. Vice President Vance echoed a mix of caution and optimism, stating that while he expects a positive outcome, Iran must approach the negotiations in good faith.

These contrasting tones highlight the delicate balance both governments are attempting to maintain—projecting strength domestically while remaining open to compromise internationally.

Beyond the geopolitical calculations, the human cost of the conflict has remained a powerful undercurrent throughout the talks.

Shortly after arriving in Islamabad, Speaker Ghalibaf shared a deeply emotional image on social media: a school bag, a pair of shoes, and four children’s bodies covered in blood on an airplane seat. The image was a stark reminder of the early days of the conflict, particularly the attack on a primary school in the Iranian city of Minab on February 28.

That incident, which resulted in the deaths of 168 people—including children and teachers—has become a symbol of the war’s devastating impact on civilians. Iran has attributed the attack to US and Israeli actions, while Washington has stated that it is investigating the incident.

The photograph has resonated widely, adding emotional weight to the negotiations and underscoring the urgency of reaching a peaceful resolution.

The Islamabad talks are part of a broader, multi-track diplomatic effort aimed at stabilizing the region.

In a related development, separate ceasefire negotiations between Lebanon and Israel are scheduled to begin in the United States on April 14. These talks are expected to address cross-border hostilities and could play a crucial role in reducing regional tensions.

Analysts note that progress in one set of negotiations could positively influence the other, creating a ripple effect that enhances the prospects for broader peace.

As Sunday’s session draws to a close, both sides appear committed to continuing the dialogue. The next round of talks is expected to resume after a brief break, with negotiators aiming to narrow differences and finalize key elements of a potential agreement.

Diplomatic observers caution that while the current momentum is encouraging, significant challenges remain. The complexity of the issues at hand, combined with decades of mistrust, means that any agreement will require careful calibration and robust verification mechanisms.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, with the aftermath of Israel’s strike in Qatar last week expected to be high on the agenda.

The strike, which targeted senior Hamas leaders on the close US ally’s territory, drew international outrage and was criticised by President Donald Trump.

Rubio earlier told reporters: “Obviously we’re not happy about it. The president was not happy about it. Now we need to move forward and figure out what comes next.”

The meeting comes as Arab leaders hold a summit in a show of support for Qatar. Its prime minister urged the international community to stop applying “double standards” and to punish Israel.

The Gulf state hosts a major US airbase and has played a key role in brokering diplomatic efforts to end the war in Gaza, serving as a mediator of indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel.

On Sunday, Netanyahu told reporters that the US-Israel relationship was as “durable as the stones in the Western Wall” while he and Rubio made a short visit to the holy site in Jerusalem’s Old City.

Also expected to be under discussion between the pair are Israeli military plans to seize Gaza City and Israel’s continued expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank.

The meeting comes ahead of a UN General Assembly meeting next week, at which some leading US allies – including the UK, France, Canada, Australia and Belgium – are expected to recognise the State of Palestine.