Exports of natural gas dropped by a staggering 95 per cent.  

The finding comes in analysis published by the International Trade Centre (ITC), a multilateral agency that has a joint mandate with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and UN trade and development body UNCTAD.  

Critical maritime corridor

The Strait, located south of Iran, is responsible for around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas flows and fertilizers, including a third of globally traded urea. 

Since the military escalation in late February, reduced commercial passage, concerns over navigational safety and higher transport and insurance costs have affected trade flows far beyond the region.  

Although recent lulls in the fighting have raised hopes that shipping could resume more fully, traffic remains far below normal levels. 

Strategic products examined 

The analysis focuses on 12 strategically important energy, fertilizer and industrial products for which Hormuz-dependent economies are important global suppliers.  

This group comprises Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.  

Trade data for April reveals that combined merchandise exports across all products from these economies declined by 21 per cent in value. 

The ITC noted, however, that export values are also affected by sharp movements in international commodity prices triggered by the disruption itself, therefore changes in physical quantities provide complementary evidence on the extent of the disruption to actual trade flows.  

Decline in exports 

Across all 12 products, export volumes fell between April 2025 and April 2026. Combined export volumes declined by 54 per cent, with liquified natural gas recording the steepest contraction, 95 per cent. 

Urea exports declined by 83 per cent, followed by methanol (80 per cent) and ammonia (75 per cent. Polymers of propylene (or polypropylene) – used for plastic packaging in consumer goods – were the least affected, declining by 24 per cent. 

The largest absolute losses were in energy products such as crude petroleum oil exports, which fell by 28 million tonnes, followed by refined petroleum oils and liquefied natural gas which declined by 7.3 million tonnes and 5.5 million tonnes respectively  

“Sizeable falls in fertilizers, chemicals, plastics and aluminium show that the disruption affected a broader range of industries and supply chains,” the authors noted. 

Importers seek alternatives 

Meanwhile, importing markets were not affected in the same way, depending on factors such as reliance on Hormuz suppliers, access to inventories and strategic reserves, domestic demand and ability to source from alternative suppliers. 

Japan, for example, historically sourced 91 per cent of its crude petroleum oil imports from Hormuz-dependent economies. In April, the country recorded a 64 per cent decline in total imports. Other highly dependent markets such as the Republic of Korea and Malaysia faced the same situation. 

In contrast, Thailand recorded a 62 increase as refiners moved to secure additional cargoes from alternative suppliers and maintain supplies during the disruption.  

Alternative suppliers in fact increased shipments for 10 of the 12 selected products across all reporting markets, yet these gains fully offset lower imports from Hormuz-dependent economies only for ammonia and polymers of propylene. 

The finding suggests that trade diversion had begun but had not fully replaced disrupted supplies by April as some markets may have drawn on inventories or strategic reserves, increased domestic production where possible, or reduced consumption. 

The ITC update also examined other aspects of the crisis, including trade measures adopted in response to the disruption such as policies aimed at ensuring adequate access to supplies, particularly of crude and refined oil. 

The ban comes after 1,100 responses to a consultation which strongly supported introducing an age restriction on the drinks, external.

The new rules will come in via secondary legislation using powers from the Food Safety Act 1990.

Too much caffeine can cause a rapid heart rate, abnormal heart rhythms and seizures.

Although rare, there have been some deaths linked to excess caffeine.

The sugary versions of the drinks can also contribute to obesity and damage teeth, according to The Association of UK Dieticians.

Currently any drink, other than tea or coffee, with over 150mg requires a label warning of its high caffeine content that says it is not recommended for children or pregnant or breast-feeding women.

For most adults, up to 400mg of caffeine a day, or about four cups of instant coffee or five cups of tea, is safe.

Katharine Jenner, Executive Director of the Obesity Health Alliance, praised the policy and said restricting the sales of the drinks to children “at a vital time in their life is just common-sense”.

The British Soft Drinks Association said the ban was “unnecessary”.

A spokesperson said: “Since 2010, our members have committed not to market or promote the sale of energy drinks to under-16s, and all high-caffeine beverages carry a ‘not recommended for children’ label.”

The previous Conservative government had planned to introduce the ban, but scrapped the move in 2022, and said consumption should be a personal choice.

Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are also considering a ban.

“We believe the fact that the indispensable role of the IAEA is recognized is a sound point of departure,” said Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in reference to the reported text of the memorandum. “Now it’s for us to sit down with our American colleagues, our Iranian colleagues and start formulating the concrete steps that will have to be taken. So, I think it’s good that the memorandum is there. Now the technical work starts.” 

According to media reports, the memorandum of understanding provides for a maximum of 60 days of negotiations to achieve a “final deal” on issues including uranium enrichment by Iran which must also reaffirm that it does not intend to develop a nuclear weapon. 

Other requirements listed in the memorandum’s text include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping and an easing of US and UN Security Council sanctions on the Middle East nation. 

The “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon” also features prominently in the first of 14 points of the memorandum.

Good faith talks

Speaking at the UN in Geneva, Mr. Grossi refused to speculate about spoilers “because we are about to start and we have to initiate any negotiation on the assumption that we are all in with faith, that we want to be successful”.

Responding to a question about a possible agreed reduction in the level of uranium enrichment by Iran, the IAEA chief noted that “many, many possibilities” could be explored. 

“There are many different alternatives…There are different ranges of enrichment in the current Iranian inventory and we will see what is agreed.”

The agency’s access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities is “not at a level and in all the locations it should be”, he stressed, but contact with the authorities is ongoing and the agency has “a pretty good idea” of the “specific things, places, that we need to access”. 

Mr Grossi added: “It’s now, I’d say, that the technical work can start for real.”

The IAEA was established in 1957 to promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy. It is an autonomous part of the United Nations system – meaning that it is not under the direct control of the UN Secretariat – but instead reports to the UN General Assembly and Security Council. 

The agency is based in Vienna and has 180 member countries; it is mandated to monitor nuclear facilities objectively, report on nuclear activities, oversee safety, promote peace through diplomacy and the use of nuclear technologies for good.

The reported revelation that the United Arab Emirates conducted a covert military strike inside Iran has significantly altered prevailing assessments of Gulf security dynamics, suggesting a quiet but consequential expansion of direct interstate conflict beneath the surface of the wider 2026 regional confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

According to reporting published by the The Wall Street Journal on May 11, citing individuals familiar with the operation, Emirati forces allegedly carried out an airstrike against Iran’s Lavan Island refinery infrastructure. The strike is described as having been executed using advanced Western-supplied combat aircraft and precision-guided munitions, marking a notable shift from defensive air operations to offensive strikes against strategic Iranian energy assets.

If confirmed, the operation would represent one of the most significant clandestine escalations in the Gulf since the onset of sustained missile, drone, and maritime attacks across the region, and it would signal a recalibration of Emirati military doctrine under prolonged pressure from Iranian long-range strike capabilities.

For years, the UAE has invested heavily in integrated air and missile defense systems designed to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and one-way attack drones targeting key infrastructure. However, the reported strike on Lavan Island suggests a doctrinal shift toward deterrence through retaliation rather than interception alone.

The alleged use of platforms such as the Dassault Mirage 2000 fleet, alongside F-16 variants equipped with precision-guided weapons, indicates that Abu Dhabi may now be willing to directly target Iranian industrial infrastructure in response to repeated attacks on its own territory.

Iranian missile and drone operations over the past year have reportedly targeted Emirati airports, ports, energy installations, and logistics hubs, placing sustained pressure on the UAE’s role as a regional commercial and financial center. In this context, analysts argue the alleged strike reflects a belief within Emirati strategic circles that deterrence credibility now requires visible offensive capability.

The reported Emirati operation took place shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a fragile ceasefire following weeks of U.S. and Israeli air operations against Iranian-linked military and strategic assets across the region.

Despite the ceasefire declaration, the operational environment across the Gulf remained volatile. Iranian missile and drone activity reportedly continued, and Gulf air defense systems remained active in intercepting incoming threats. Maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz further contributed to instability, affecting shipping flows and raising insurance costs for commercial carriers.

The alleged Emirati strike therefore appears to have occurred in an environment where formal diplomatic de-escalation had not translated into operational restraint on the ground.

Lavan Island occupies an important position in Iran’s energy export architecture, hosting infrastructure linked to oil processing and maritime logistics routes. Damage to facilities on the island, if accurately reported, would represent not only a physical disruption but also a symbolic demonstration of vulnerability within Iran’s coastal energy network.

The strike reportedly caused significant fires and disabled a substantial portion of refining capacity for several months. Importantly, there were no confirmed reports of mass casualties, suggesting the operation may have been calibrated to prioritize infrastructure degradation over population-level harm.

Military analysts have increasingly described energy infrastructure as a central battleground in modern Gulf conflict dynamics, where economic disruption can serve as a coercive tool comparable to direct battlefield victories.

Iran’s response to prior Gulf-based strikes has reportedly involved large-scale missile and drone campaigns targeting infrastructure across multiple states, including the UAE and Kuwait. Some estimates cited in regional defense discussions suggest more than 2,800 missiles and drones were launched at Emirati targets during the broader conflict cycle, although exact figures remain unverified.

These attacks exposed vulnerabilities in traditional point-defense systems, particularly when confronted with saturation-style assaults combining ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and low-cost unmanned aerial systems launched from multiple vectors.

The UAE’s energy infrastructure, aviation hubs, and maritime logistics networks—central to its economic model—have therefore become strategic pressure points in the wider confrontation.

One of the most significant implications of the reported Lavan Island operation is the growing normalization of deniable precision warfare among Gulf states. Rather than engaging in openly declared war, regional actors are increasingly believed to be adopting covert strike doctrines designed to impose costs while avoiding full-scale escalation triggers.

Such operations typically rely on intelligence-driven targeting, long-range strike aircraft, and highly controlled operational secrecy. The goal is not territorial gain, but rather calibrated deterrence—signaling capability while maintaining plausible ambiguity.

The Emirati Foreign Ministry, according to the WSJ report, neither confirmed nor denied the strike, instead reiterating past statements affirming the country’s right to respond to threats against national security and economic stability. That ambiguity aligns with broader Gulf strategic messaging intended to preserve escalation flexibility.

The alleged operation also underscores evolving alignment between Gulf states and broader Western strategic objectives. The The Pentagon reportedly responded positively to Emirati actions, reflecting a tacit acceptance of Gulf participation in pressure campaigns against Iranian strategic infrastructure.

Such alignment reinforces Iranian perceptions that Gulf states are increasingly integrated into a coordinated regional posture involving the United States and Israel, particularly in the context of ongoing tensions over Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and its regional proxy network.

This perception, analysts warn, may increase the likelihood of expanded Iranian retaliation against Gulf infrastructure in future escalation cycles.

Despite formal ceasefire announcements, the operational tempo across the region suggests a persistent state of active confrontation. Missile interceptions, drone incursions, and maritime disruptions continue to occur intermittently, indicating that strategic tensions remain unresolved.

The ceasefire, therefore, appears less as a stable peace agreement and more as a temporary pause in a multi-domain conflict involving cyber operations, covert strikes, proxy engagements, and maritime interference.

The possibility of additional undisclosed operations—either by the UAE or other regional actors—further complicates efforts to stabilize the situation, as attribution uncertainty increases the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation.

Beyond regional security concerns, the reported strike has significant implications for global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors, with approximately one-fifth of global petroleum shipments passing through its waters.

Even limited disruptions in this corridor can generate immediate effects on oil pricing, shipping insurance rates, and global supply chain stability. Recent Iranian maritime disruption operations have already contributed to fuel shortages and volatility in energy markets.

The emergence of the UAE as an active strike participant inside Iran therefore introduces an additional layer of uncertainty for global traders, particularly regarding the potential for expanded infrastructure targeting across the Gulf.

Despite the reporting by the Wall Street Journal, no independent public verification has yet confirmed additional Emirati strikes inside Iran beyond the Lavan Island incident. The scale, frequency, and operational scope of any covert campaign remain unclear.

What is evident, however, is that even the perception of such an operation has already reshaped strategic calculations across the Middle East. It signals that Gulf states may no longer be willing to absorb sustained missile and drone attacks without responding directly against Iranian infrastructure.

This shift represents a potential turning point in Gulf security architecture—one defined not solely by defense and deterrence through interception, but increasingly by offensive retaliation, covert warfare, and reciprocal economic targeting.

Southeast Asia and South Asia were first to be impacted by the most severe energy crisis in a generation, said Dario Liguti from the UN Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), but he warned that “it is an unfolding energy crisis,” with motorists in Europe already bracing themselves every time they fill up the tank.

Given how national economies the world over remain so dependent on fossil fuels and regional or geopolitical shocks, ECE has been bringing countries together in Geneva and elsewhere to discuss ways to wean themselves off fossil fuels, or at least use them more wisely.

One wasted resource that could be used far more widely is natural gas – methane – which is commonly burned off, or “flared” at oil wells, fossil fuel processing plants or refineries, as a safety measure.

Instead of burning off the gas – as is often the case at refineries the world over – it could be stored and used when needed, lowering our dependence on primary sources of energy, UNECE maintains.

The agency is already leading efforts to reduce emissions of methane which is more than 80 times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year period and a clear driver of global warming.

Clean energy transition crucial

In line with sustainability goals which the world’s nations agreed to in 2015, the UN supports a transition to renewable energy production, away from fossil fuels.

The current crisis “is a clear signal that we need to advance with the energy transition in particular through the electrification of transport or heating,” Mr. Liguti stressed. 

“We need to accelerate renewable energy deployment because these are decentralised energy sources and much cleaner, not only from an environmental perspective, but from an energy security perspective too.”

Hunger worsens in Lebanon

In Lebanon, where ongoing clashes between Hezbollah fighters and Israel continue to cause panic and fear, the economic impact has strained livelihoods, rising costs and supply disruptions are worsening food insecurity.

Nearly a quarter of the population is facing acute hunger, according to UN-backed food security experts.

A new alert from the IPC (the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) on Wednesday warned that the situation is deteriorating rapidly. Around 1.2 million people could face high levels of acute food insecurity between now and August – a sharp increase from the 874,000 affected in late 2025 and early 2026.

“Behind every number are families struggling to meet their food needs consistently,” the World Food Programme (WFP) said, as it continues to scale up assistance with partners.

Public services stretched

The humanitarian situation is further compounded by displacement and fragile public services. In one school-turned-shelter in Jdeideh, in northern Beirut city, 377 people – around 90 families – are living in cramped conditions, highlighting the pressures on basic infrastructure.

Health services are also under strain. The UN World Health Organization (WHO) has been working with partners to strengthen hospitals, including support for blood banks to ensure life-saving transfusions during emergencies.

Despite these efforts, aid agencies warn that needs continue to outpace resources.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, they say, is not just a regional disruption but a global shock, but one that is amplifying existing vulnerabilities and pushing already fragile humanitarian systems closer to the brink. 

Fuel shortages in the nation have deepened after Washington took measures at the end of January to block oil supplies from entering the Caribbean nation. 

Despite the reported arrival of limited fuel supplies, including a recent oil shipment sent by Russia which was allowed to dock by the United States despite its blockade last week, “the humanitarian needs in the country remain quite acute and persistent”, said the top UN official in the country on Monday, adding that the impacts of the energy shock have ‘worsened’ since the end of March. 

Resident Coordinator Francisco Pichon, briefing reporters in New York via video link, unveiled an updated Action Plan aimed at supporting around two million people across eight provinces. 

The plan builds on previous recovery efforts from Hurricane Melissa with a focus on the island’s collapsing power grid.

Shock to daily life

The humanitarian situation has reached a critical tipping point following three months without sufficient fuel to meet the Caribbean nation’s energy needs, which had been largely met by Venezuela until the US rendition of President Nicolás Maduro in January. 

The crisis was further exacerbated last month, when the national electrical system disconnected three times, plunging the nation into darkness for days at a time.

This energy deficiency has paralysed essential services. Health systems are facing a backlog of over 96,000 pending surgeries, including 11,000 for children, while the National Immunization Programme has been delayed for thousands of infants. 

Furthermore, roughly one million people are currently dependent on water trucking, a service severely constrained by the lack of diesel.

Focus on vulnerable populations

Mr. Pichon emphasised that the crisis was not felt equally, hitting the most vulnerable groups in Cuba the hardest. 

With Cuba being the most aged country in Latin America, the UN is prioritising the protection of nearly 300,000 elderly citizens living alone, as well as over 100,000 people with disabilities and 32,000 pregnant women.

“The humanitarian consequences continue every day, despite recent efforts to deliver fuel; the situation comes on top of multiple shocks,” Mr. Pichon said. 

To address these needs, the UN presence in Cuba emphasised shifting toward sustainable energy backup solutions. 

The updated Action Plan includes the installation of solar power for irrigation systems, hospitals, and schools, as well as the reinforcement of water pumping infrastructure to reduce reliance on the fragile national grid.

‘Critical window of opportunity’

While the UN has already mobilised $26.2 million, a significant funding gap of $68 million remains. 

Mr. Pichon stressed that the UN is working in close dialogue with national authorities and the private sector to identify logistical solutions that guarantee the viability of aid operations.

“We believe this is a critical window of opportunity to mobilise resources and raise awareness of the urgency.”

Bomb damage in eastern Tehran where Israeli and US strikes began on 28 February, sparking a regional war that has spread to Lebanon, with deepening global economic ramifications for developing and industrialized nations.

And with Brent Crude still trading at more than $100 per barrel, many workers and households have reverted to using oil and coal, raising concerns of lasting environmental damage, while numerous countries have already announced fuel rationing and a move to online meetings.

Just over four weeks since Israeli–US bombing of Iran began, sparking the wider regional conflict, the almost immediate disruption to tanker traffic in the vital Persian Gulf waterway cut oil shipments worldwide, followed by natural gas, coal, transport, food and fertilizers.

“Only a small group of LDCs [Least Developed Countries] are net energy exporters: South Sudan, Angola, Chad, Mozambique, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Yemen,” said UNCTAD’s Junior Davis, Head of Policy Analysis and Research Branch Division for Africa, LDCs and Special Programmes. 

“The majority are net importers, including Niger, Zambia, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Madagascar, Togo, Sudan, Uganda, Nepal, Eritrea, Benin, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Senegal.” 

Even oil exporters face pain

Highlighting the case of Angola, Mr. Davis noted that the oil-exporting developing countries may only see “limited gains” from doing so, “because many lack domestic refining capacity and re-import refined petroleum products at higher prices”. 

Neighbouring Zambia faces even “greater hardship” because it relies on refined fuel imported from the Middle East (and notably the UAE), just as LDCs remain “heavily dependent” on fertilizer produced abroad, since the manufacturing process relies heavily on natural gas (methane) – the UNCTAD economist explained.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 17 of the world’s poorest nations need to import more than 30 per cent of their cereal needs. Even more worrying, the same number of Least Developed Countries spend more than half of what they earn from exports just to buy food. 

“The implication is that rising energy prices will rapidly transmit into food prices and amplify the risk of hunger for households,” Mr. Davis noted.

Limited room to manoeuvre

Finding quick solutions to the energy crisis will not be easy, given the high level of debt repayments hanging over many of the world’s poorest nations – an issue that the UN Secretary-General has repeatedly criticized and urged the financial sector to reform, in the interests of fairness, competitiveness and growth.

“Given how heavily indebted many developing countries are to foreign lenders and the squeeze on public spending they have faced for years, it’s highly likely that households will have to pay more for their energy, food and fertilizers and use less. It’s not going to be pretty.”

Against this worrying backdrop, the UN trade and development agency, UNCTAD, noted that 15 of the world’s Least Developed Countries have yet to recover from the turbulent COVID years, with their economies in worse shape than in 2019.

Crisis measures