Arab News | Will China play a role in ending Iran war?

It was reported last week that China wants Iran to use its influence with the Houthis to prevent the conflict from spiraling. At the same time, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart, who was on a visit to China, that Beijing is willing to “safeguard Iran’s legitimate rights and interests,” while urging the US and Iran to go back to the negotiating table.

These developments came a few days after Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the members of the BRICS grouping to work jointly to bring peace and stability to the Gulf region. While he did not specifically offer to mediate between the US and Iran, many said he insinuated that Beijing could act as an intermediary. China is exceptionally well positioned to conduct or facilitate mediation because it can present itself as a guarantor.

So far, China has not been diplomatically engaged in the conflict. It has only opposed the war while observing events as they unfold. China has been able to shield itself from the conflict. To start with, it has a policy of buying huge amounts of oil when the price is low. Hence, when the conflict erupted and the price skyrocketed, Beijing decreased its imports. However, this cannot last forever. At some point, the conflict is going to affect China. It needs closure and this is probably what has enticed it to take a more active role in efforts to end the war.

Since the beginning, China has been against the US’ war on Iran. It rejected the “economic D-Day” sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump in August, even deeming them to be illegal.

From my discussions with Chinese experts and academics, China does not seek to replace the US in the Middle East. It does not want to have military bases across the region. However, it wants to make sure its interests are protected. It wants to make sure the region is stable and there is a secure and steady flow of oil. This is why it has a vested interest in ending the current conflict and preventing it from spreading.

Xi will visit the US this week. It is expected that he will bring up the issue of Iran with his counterpart. Trump will probably ask Xi to pressure Iran, knowing that he has the capability to do so.

It is difficult for Tehran to butt heads with China because Beijing is its lifeline, especially amid the crisis

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

After all, China — like the US, the Arab Gulf and the rest of the international community — has a vested interest in ensuring freedom of navigation in the region’s waterways. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait can trigger a crisis for everyone. Though Iran is showing defiance, it is a totally different story when it comes to China. It is difficult for Tehran to butt heads with China because Beijing is its lifeline, especially amid the crisis it is currently facing.

As Wang has said, China wants to “safeguard Iran’s legitimate rights and interests.” Beijing can present itself as a guarantor. It can guarantee that Iran will comply. Most importantly, it can make sure the American blockade on Iran is lifted and the bombing does not resume after the Israeli elections in October and the US midterms in November.

China should not only mediate between the US and Iran, it should also seek to broker talks between the Arab Gulf — Saudi Arabia in particular — and Iran. China has leverage with both countries and has already brokered the Beijing Agreement of March 2023, through which diplomatic relations were restored after seven years. China can capitalize on this agreement. Again, it can play an important role not only by mediating but also, because of its leverage, it can play the role of guarantor. In any mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a guarantor is needed because the two parties do not trust each other.

While the US and Israel want to see Iran and the Arab Gulf states fighting each other, China wants to see them getting along. If Iran and the Gulf states are on good terms, it will be more difficult for the war to resume. However, the main point of contention between the Gulf and Iran is the latter’s nonstate actors and sleeper cells. Iran has always called its proxies allies and has used them as leverage against countries in the region. Today we see the Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia from the south, while the pro-Iran militias in Iraq attack from the north. China can push the Kingdom and Iran to fully normalize by solving the issue of nonstate actors in the framework of a regional security architecture.

The Chinese are known to take a measured approach in their foreign policy. They are very careful in their state-to-state relations and adopt a strict policy of noninterference. However, they know that if this war does not end soon, the situation could spiral out of control, with consequences that would be disastrous for the world economy. So, Beijing might now be thinking of throwing the weight of the Chinese dragon behind efforts to bring this conflict to an end.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

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