Australia’s Populist Hard Right Usurps Main Opposition in Poll as One Nation Overtakes Coalition After Bondi Terror Attack

Australia’s right-wing populist One Nation party has overtaken the country’s main centre-right opposition for the first time, highlighting a growing fragmentation of the conservative vote and echoing trends seen across other developed democracies.

A Newspoll published in The Australian newspaper on Monday showed One Nation on 22 per cent, a sharp rise from 15 per cent in the previous survey. The result places the party ahead of the Liberal–National Coalition, which slumped to a record-low 21 per cent. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party remains in front on 32 per cent, though that figure also represents a decline. The poll did not publish a margin of error.

The surge comes amid heightened political tensions following last month’s terrorist attack on a Hanukkah celebration at Sydney’s Bondi Beach. The incident intensified scrutiny of the Albanese government’s handling of antisemitism and community safety, issues that have dominated public debate in recent weeks. It has also fuelled broader dissatisfaction with the political establishment, reflected in the poll’s finding that majorities of voters are unhappy with both Albanese and opposition leader Sussan Ley.

Immigration has emerged as another key driver of One Nation’s rise. The party and its long-time leader, Senator Pauline Hanson, have campaigned against high immigration levels for more than three decades, arguing they undermine social cohesion and strain public services. With cost-of-living pressures and housing shortages worsening, those messages appear to be resonating with a growing segment of voters.

The Newspoll was released as Parliament returned in Canberra for an emergency sitting to debate new gun legislation introduced after the Bondi attack. The government initially proposed tougher measures to combat hate speech as part of its response, but later dropped the plan following objections from the Coalition and the Greens, who warned of potential restrictions on freedom of expression.

Political analysts say One Nation’s advance mirrors the rise of populist right-wing movements in the United Kingdom and across Europe, where voters have increasingly turned away from traditional parties that have dominated politics since World War II.

Hanson herself remains a polarising figure. She was suspended from the Senate late last year after appearing in the chamber wearing a burqa, a garment she has repeatedly called for banning in Australia. Despite the controversy, the latest poll suggests her party is gaining unprecedented traction in a volatile and rapidly shifting political landscape.