UK draws up new disease-threat watch list

The UK has a new watch list of 24 infectious diseases that could pose the greatest future threat to public health.

Some are viruses with global pandemic potential – like Covid – while others are illnesses that have no existing treatments or could cause significant harm.

Avian, or bird, flu is on the list, as well as mosquito-spread illnesses that may become common with rising temperatures from climate change, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

The aim is to steer scientists and investors into making new tests and vaccines or medicines in preparation.

There is no ranking within the list, since threats constantly change, UKHSA chief scientific officer Prof Isabel Oliver says.

And it will be updated at least once a year, to avoid a repeat of the Covid pandemic, where experts had been planning for an entirely different outbreak – influenza.

“When Covid arrived, it took too long to adjust our response to a different threat, which was part of the reason we ended up in lockdown,” Prof Mark Woolhouse, director of the Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa, University of Edinburgh, said.

“Since the pandemic, there have been many initiatives to better understand the diversity of pandemic threats that the UK and the world may face in the coming years.

“The UKHSA’s pathogen prioritisation exercise is a welcome contribution to this global effort.”

A family of viruses called Paramyxoviridae, which includes measles, is on the list.

And this was the type of pandemic threat public-health agencies around the world were most worried about, Prof Woolhouse said.

A novel measles-like virus would be highly spreadable and “impossible to control by even the strictest lockdown”, making it “a threat far worse than Covid.”

“It would also be considerably more deadly and, unlike Covid, it would be a [major] threat to children,” Prof Woolhouse said.

Prof Oliver said the UKHSA would consult animal-health colleagues for future updates, since many new and emerging outbreaks were zoonotic disease that jumped species to infect humans.

Some bacteria also feature, including those such as gonorrohoea where resistance to existing antibiotic treatments is becoming an issue.

• Adenovirus
• Lassa fever
• Norovirus
• Mers
• Ebola (and similar viruses, such as Marburg)
• Flaviviridae (which includes dengue, Zika and hepatitis C)
• Hantavirus
• Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever
• Flu (non-seasonal, including avian)
• Nipah virus
• Oropouche
• Rift Valley fever
• Acute flaccid myelitis
• Human metapneumovirus (HMPV)
• Mpox
• Chikungunya
• Anthrax
• Q fever
• Enterobacteriaceae (such as E. coli and Yersinia pestis, which causes plague)
• Tularaemia
• Moraxellaceae (which cause lung, urine and bloodstream infections)
• Gonorrhoea
• Staplylococcus
• Group A and B Strep