Russian ships move from Syria base amid doubts over future

Frederik Van Lokeren, a former Belgian navy captain and analyst, told BBC Verify that it appeared the Russian vessels were now in a holding pattern while Moscow deliberated on its next move.

“They’re effectively in limbo at the moment, because they don’t quite know what’s going to happen,” Mr Van Lokeren said.

“Obviously, since they’re lingering there, it seems that Russia is not willing to withdraw all its naval vessels out of the area just yet, which might be an indication that they’re negotiating with regional partners to see where they can redeploy these vessels.”

Analysts have speculated that if Russia is forced to close the Tartous naval facility, it could redeploy its presence to Tobruk in Libya. The region is controlled by the Kremlin-backed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and already hosts some Russian airbases.

But withdrawing from Tartous would be immensely costly, and Mr Van Lokeren noted that the move would also bring Russian vessels closer to Nato bases, making them easier to track. For now, he said, there is no indication that Russia is moving the necessary naval assets to remove equipment from Tartous.

Meanwhile, since 2015 the Khmeimim air base has become a key part of Russia’s operations across the Middle East and Africa. It has been used to launch devastating air strikes on cities across Syria in support of the Assad regime, while also using it to fly military contractors to Africa.

Satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify showed at least two large jets – identified by Janes as IL-76 transport aircraft – still sitting on the tarmac at the base on 10 December. Helicopters could also be seen at the base in the images.

Janes also notes that air defence systems deployed at the site remain visible in the north-western corner of the image.