Hamas has not formally joined the current round of talks, and many believe Mr Sinwar’s own priority is keeping the Gaza War going in order to spark a regional conflict, which would put enormous pressure on Israel, and – the reasoning goes -force its prime minister into greater concessions to end it.
The risks of a wider escalation – amid threats from Iran and Hezbollah – are one reason Washington is pressing hard for a deal. The US is three months away from a presidential election, and President Biden’s administration believes a ceasefire in Gaza would help calm the region.
The political analyst, Dana Weiss, says that Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant agrees that if Israel does not take the path of a ceasefire deal – even temporarily – then it will be on a sure path to escalation.
“For the prime minister, it’s totally the opposite,” she says. “He answers: No, if we go ahead and cave to Sinwar now, Hezbollah and Iran see that we’re weak. We have to finish the task with Hamas, to prevent the war.”
But, she says, Mr Netanyahu also has domestic political incentives to stall the negotiations. Among those incentives is the fact that, after months of abysmal approval ratings, he is now rising again in opinion polls.
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